Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 15

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda (Santiago del Estero)


	Güemes		Patronato Parana

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.75	3.1	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.9
	2.58	2.78	2.98	Watch
	2.68	2.82	3.14
	2.77	2.54	3.25	Watch
	2.63	2.63	3
	2.53	2.7	3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.57)	2.72 ↑ (2.65)	3.05 ↓ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Güemes
35.6%

Draw
34.1%

Patronato Parana
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

35.3%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

36.6%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Güemes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Patronato Parana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Güemes than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Güemes - Patronato Parana Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Güemes will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Patronato will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Güemes (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Finochietto L. (G) 4. Bordon A. 2. Oneto T. 6. Melillan F. 3. Lazza E. 8. Juarez W. 5. Benitez M. 10. Veliz D. 11. Gerez M. 7. Sala S. G. 9. Amilivia T.	1. Sosa A. (C) 4. Rueda W. 2. Piccioni S. 6. Meritello F. 3. Heredia F. 8. Salas J. 5. Bravo F. 10. Cortes B. 11. Pereyra V. L. 7. Soldano F. 9. Barolin J.
Substitutes
14. Arnay R. 18. Esposito G. 16. Farrera S. 13. Gonzalez A. (G) 15. Juarez J. 12. Martinez L. (G) 20. Mendoza J. 17. Pugliese G. 19. Quiroz M.	15. Barinaga J. P. 20. Enrique M. 14. Genez N. 16. Giacinti I. 18. Miro A. 13. Moreyra F. 17. Picco A. 19. Reynaga R. 12. Rivasseau F. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Sosa A. 🟨,
45', Sala S. G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', Amilivia T. ↓, Mendoza J. ↑,
77', Juarez W. ↓, Pugliese G. ↑,
77', Sala S. G. ↓, Esposito G. ↑,
77', Bordon A. ↓, Arnay R. ↑,
82', Barolin J. ↓, Reynaga R. ↑,
82', Cortes B. ↓, Miro A. ↑,
82', Pereyra V. L. ↓, Picco A. ↑,
88', 1 - 0, Esposito G. ⚽,
90+3', Salas J. ↓, Giacinti I. ↑,
90+3', Bravo F. ↓, Barinaga J. P. ↑,
90+5', Melillan F. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Güemes won 2.

Güemes is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Patronato is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Patronato may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Güemes won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 1.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Güemes won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Güemes - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.35%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Güemes
Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.05.26	Colegiales - Güemes	4:1 ✺
10.05.26	Güemes - Quilmes	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Güemes	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Güemes - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Güemes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LWLLT
- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
17.05.26	Patronato Parana - Chacarita Juniors	2:0 ✺
09.05.26	San Martín de San Juan - Patronato Parana	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Patronato Parana - Nueva Chicago	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Temperley - Patronato Parana	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Patronato Parana - Deportivo Maipú	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
22.06.25	Patronato Parana - Güemes	1:1
14.02.25	Güemes - Patronato Parana	1:1
03.08.24	Güemes - Patronato Parana	2:1
17.03.24	Patronato Parana - Güemes	0:0
30.07.23	Güemes - Patronato Parana	1:0
25.03.23	Patronato Parana - Güemes	1:2

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