Match Info

National League - Round 12

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Albania	16:00	DAZN
Argentina	11:00	DAZN
Austria	16:00	DAZN
Bolivia	10:00	DAZN
Brazil	11:00	DAZN Brasil
Bulgaria	17:00	DAZN
Canada	10:00	DAZN Canada
Croatia	16:00	DAZN
Cyprus	17:00	DAZN
Czech Republic	16:00	DAZN
Denmark	16:00	DAZN
Ecuador	09:00	DAZN
Finland	17:00	DAZN
France	16:00	DAZN France
Germany	16:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	17:00	DAZN
Hungary	16:00	DAZN
Italy	16:00	DAZN Italia
Japan	23:00	DAZN Japan
Latvia	17:00	DAZN
Lithuania	17:00	DAZN
New Zealand	03:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Macedonia	16:00	DAZN
Paraguay	10:00	DAZN
Poland	16:00	DAZN
Portugal	15:00	DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	17:00	DAZN
Slovenia	16:00	DAZN
Spain	16:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	16:00	DAZN
Switzerland	16:00	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	22:00	DAZN
Turkey	17:00	DAZN Turkiye
United Kingdom	15:00	DAZN
Uruguay	11:00	DAZN
Usa	10:00	DAZN USA
Venezuela	10:00	DAZN
International	14:00	DAZN National League


	Hartlepool United		Tamworth

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.60	3.00
	2.10	3.40	2.80
	2.12	3.45	3.00
	2.14	3.70	3.23
	2.18	3.64	2.97	Watch
	2.11	3.60	3.15
	2.14	3.66	3.05
	2.12	3.55	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.26)	3.58 ↓ (3.59)	3.03 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
43.6%

Draw
25.9%

Tamworth
30.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41%

25.8%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

24.6%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Tamworth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tamworth than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Hartlepool United - Tamworth Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
53. Thompson M. (G) 15. Penman C. 4. Hunter J. (C) 6. McNally R. 3. John C. 17. Nolan J. 14. Sheron N. 8. Miley J. 42. Deeming C. 10. Harris W. 19. Popov C.	39. Lovett R. (G) 3. Handley T. 5. Parkes T. (C) 12. Rye J. 29. Carson H. 4. Kurtaran T. 14. Dyson O. 19. McGlinchey T. 30. Roberts M. 16. Calder R. 10. Donnelly K.
Substitutes
30. Bondo T. 11. Charman L. 22. Darcy C. 32. Fisher N. (G) 9. Hugill J. 7. Ilunga B. 21. Thornton C.	7. Acquaye B. . Agina S. 18. Cullinane-Liburd J. 23. Hutchinson J. 28. Kelly G. 2. Lyttle T. . Macaulay J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Nolan J. (Penalty Awarded),
42', 0 - 1, Donnelly K. ⚽, Carson H. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Popov C. ↓, Hugill J. ↑,
62', Calder R. ↓, Acquaye B. ↑,
63', Nolan J. ↓, Ilunga B. ↑,
63', Deeming C. ↓, Charman L. ↑,
74', Dyson O. ↓, Kelly G. ↑,
76', Hunter J. ↓, Darcy C. ↑,
87', Donnelly K. ↓, Hutchinson J. ↑,
87', McGlinchey T. ↓, Agina S. ↑,

Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 22nd in the Relegation and 20th).

Hartlepool has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Tamworth have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Tamworth may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Hartlepool has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 6:6 (averaging 1.2:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Hartlepool against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:5 goals (averaging 1.3:1.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Tamworth	14	5	2	7	25:31	-6	17
20	Hartlepool	15	5	0	10	15:23	-8	15

Last Results with these Odds

Hartlepool United - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.04%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Tamworth - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 33.12%, but this team recently wins 8% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English National League North
29.09.26	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	0:1 ✺
English National League
26.09.26	Scunthorpe United - Hartlepool United	4:1 ✺
19.09.26	Hartlepool United - Worthing	1:3 ✺
English National League North
16.09.26	Altrincham - Hartlepool United	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Kidderminster Harriers - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Tamworth
English National League
30.09.26	Tamworth - Sutton United	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Aldershot Town - Tamworth	5:1 ✺
19.09.26	Tamworth - Wealdstone	2:1 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Southend United - Tamworth	3:1 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Harrogate Town - Tamworth	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
07.02.26	Tamworth - Hartlepool United	1:1
27.09.25	Hartlepool United - Tamworth	1:1
11.02.25	Hartlepool United - Tamworth	2:2
English FA Trophy
10.12.24	Hartlepool United - Tamworth	1:2 penalties
English National League
20.08.24	Tamworth - Hartlepool United	0:1

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