Match Info

National League - Round 12

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hartlepool United		Tamworth

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.60	3.00
	2.10	3.40	2.80
	2.12	3.45	3.00
	2.14	3.70	3.23
	2.18	3.64	2.97	Watch
	2.11	3.60	3.15
	2.14	3.66	3.05
	2.12	3.55	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.26)	3.58 ↓ (3.59)	3.03 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
43.6%

Draw
25.9%

Tamworth
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

25.8%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

24.6%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Tamworth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tamworth than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Hartlepool United - Tamworth Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
53. Thompson M. (G) 15. Penman C. 4. Hunter J. (C) 6. McNally R. 3. John C. 17. Nolan J. 14. Sheron N. 8. Miley J. 42. Deeming C. 10. Harris W. 19. Popov C.	39. Lovett R. (G) 3. Handley T. 5. Parkes T. (C) 12. Rye J. 29. Carson H. 4. Kurtaran T. 14. Dyson O. 19. McGlinchey T. 30. Roberts M. 16. Calder R. 10. Donnelly K.
Substitutes
30. Bondo T. 11. Charman L. 22. Darcy C. 32. Fisher N. (G) 9. Hugill J. 7. Ilunga B. 21. Thornton C.	7. Acquaye B. . Agina S. 18. Cullinane-Liburd J. 23. Hutchinson J. 28. Kelly G. 2. Lyttle T. . Macaulay J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Nolan J. (Penalty Awarded),
42', 0 - 1, Donnelly K. ⚽, Carson H. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Popov C. ↓, Hugill J. ↑,
62', Calder R. ↓, Acquaye B. ↑,
63', Nolan J. ↓, Ilunga B. ↑,
63', Deeming C. ↓, Charman L. ↑,
74', Dyson O. ↓, Kelly G. ↑,
76', Hunter J. ↓, Darcy C. ↑,
87', Donnelly K. ↓, Hutchinson J. ↑,
87', McGlinchey T. ↓, Agina S. ↑,

Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 22nd in the Relegation and 20th).

Hartlepool has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Tamworth have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Tamworth may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Hartlepool has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 6:6 (averaging 1.2:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Hartlepool against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:5 goals (averaging 1.3:1.7 per game).

Outrights of English National League for now

Hartlepool: 0.62% Tamworth: 0.45%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Tamworth	12	4	2	6	20:28	-8	14
22	Hartlepool	12	3	0	9	8:17	-9	9

Last Results with these Odds

Hartlepool United - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.04%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Tamworth - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 33.12%, but this team recently wins 8% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English National League North
29.09.26	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	0:1 ✺
English National League
26.09.26	Scunthorpe United - Hartlepool United	4:1 ✺
19.09.26	Hartlepool United - Worthing	1:3 ✺
English National League North
16.09.26	Altrincham - Hartlepool United	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Kidderminster Harriers - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Tamworth
English National League
30.09.26	Tamworth - Sutton United	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Aldershot Town - Tamworth	5:1 ✺
19.09.26	Tamworth - Wealdstone	2:1 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Southend United - Tamworth	3:1 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Harrogate Town - Tamworth	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
07.02.26	Tamworth - Hartlepool United	1:1
27.09.25	Hartlepool United - Tamworth	1:1
11.02.25	Hartlepool United - Tamworth	2:2
English FA Trophy
10.12.24	Hartlepool United - Tamworth	1:2 penalties
English National League
20.08.24	Tamworth - Hartlepool United	0:1

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