Match Info

National League - Round 13

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Carlisle United		Hartlepool United

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.75	4.1
	1.78	3.85	3.9
	1.78	4.01	4.12
	2.10	2.27	6.27	Watch
	1.78	3.7	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.74)	3.52 ↓ (3.82)	4.48 ↑ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
51.8%

Draw
27%

Hartlepool United
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

24.2%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

23.7%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Carlisle United - Hartlepool United Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carlisle (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Breeze G. (G) 2. Davies A. 18. Ellis J. 20. Gilliead A. 3. Harper C. 9. Kelly G. 10. Linney R. 11. Luamba J. 26. Mugabi B. 4. Thomas T. (C) 16. Wearne S.	1. Cartwright H. (G) 2. Benn J. 11. Charman L. 7. Francis J. 3. John C. 9. Johnson D. 6. Kouogun M. 18. Miley J. 4. Parkes T. (C) 14. Sheron N. 23. Topalloj B.
Substitutes
7. Ajiboye D. 29. Armstrong L. 5. Feeney M. 24. Grant J. 25. Lewis H. (G) 8. Whelan C. 22. Williams J.	24. Dacosta Gonzalez M. 28. Daly M. 8. Ferguson N. 15. Hunter J. 27. Oliver V. 40. Smith A. (G) 38. Walker B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Harper C. ⚽, Linney R. (A),
14', Mugabi B. ↓, Feeney M. ↑,
38', Cartwright H. ↓, Smith A. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Topalloj B. ↓, Daly M. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Francis J. ⚽,
61', Thomas T. ↓, Grant J. ↑,
67', Parkes T. ↓, Walker B. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Kelly G. ⚽, Harper C. (A),
78', Charman L. ↓, Oliver V. ↑,
79', Johnson D. ↓, Ferguson N. ↑,
89', 3 - 1, Feeney M. ⚽, Linney R. (A),
90', Linney R. ↓, Armstrong L. ↑,
90', Luamba J. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
90+1', Wearne S. ↓, Whelan C. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Carlisle is the team to beat.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 30:16. (average 2.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlisle won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:9. (average 2.4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English National League
27.09.25	Carlisle United - Rochdale	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	York City - Carlisle United	5:0 ✺
20.09.25	Altrincham - Carlisle United	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Carlisle United - Aldershot Town	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Carlisle United - Truro City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLWWW
- Hartlepool United
English National League
27.09.25	Hartlepool United - Tamworth	1:1 ✺
23.09.25	Gateshead - Hartlepool United	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Aldershot Town - Hartlepool United	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Hartlepool United - Brackley Town	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	Forest Green Rovers - Hartlepool United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
24.01.23	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	3:1
08.10.22	Hartlepool United - Carlisle United	1:3
18.01.22	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	0:0
English EFL Trophy
31.08.21	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	4:3 penalties
English League Two
28.08.21	Hartlepool United - Carlisle United	2:1
14.04.17	Hartlepool United - Carlisle United	1:1
15.10.16	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	3:2

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