Match Info

National League - Round 13

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Albania	20:45	DAZN
Argentina	15:45	DAZN
Australia	04:45	DAZN
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Belarus	21:45	DAZN
Bolivia	14:45	DAZN
Brazil	15:45	DAZN Brasil
Bulgaria	21:45	DAZN
Canada	14:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Colombia	13:45	DAZN
Croatia	20:45	DAZN
Cyprus	21:45	DAZN
Czech Republic	20:45	DAZN
Denmark	20:45	DAZN
Ecuador	13:45	DAZN
Finland	21:45	DAZN
France	20:45	DAZN France
Germany	20:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	21:45	DAZN
Hong Kong	02:45	DAZN
Hungary	20:45	DAZN
India	00:15	DAZN
Indonesia	01:45	DAZN
Italy	20:45	DAZN Italia
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	00:45	DAZN
Latvia	21:45	DAZN
Lithuania	21:45	DAZN
Malaysia	02:45	DAZN
Mexico	12:45	DAZN
New Zealand	07:45	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	19:45	DAZN
North Macedonia	20:45	DAZN
Norway	20:45	DAZN
Paraguay	14:45	DAZN
Philippines	02:45	DAZN
Poland	20:45	DAZN
Portugal	19:45	DAZN / App
Romania	21:45	DAZN
Russia	21:45	DAZN
Serbia	20:45	DAZN
Slovenia	20:45	DAZN
South Africa	20:45	DAZN
South Korea	03:45	DAZN
Spain	20:45	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:45	DAZN
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	02:45	DAZN
Thailand	01:45	DAZN
Ukraine	21:45	DAZN
United Arab Emirates	22:45	DAZN
United Kingdom	19:45	DAZN
Uruguay	15:45	DAZN
Usa	14:45	DAZN USA
Uzbekistan	23:45	DAZN
Venezuela	14:45	DAZN
Vietnam	01:45	DAZN


	Carlisle United		Hartlepool United

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.75	4.1
	1.78	3.85	3.9
	1.78	4.01	4.12
	2.10	2.27	6.27	Watch
	1.78	3.7	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.74)	3.52 ↓ (3.82)	4.48 ↑ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
51.8%

Draw
27%

Hartlepool United
21.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53%

24.2%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

23.7%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Carlisle United - Hartlepool United Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carlisle (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Breeze G. (G) 2. Davies A. 18. Ellis J. 20. Gilliead A. 3. Harper C. 9. Kelly G. 10. Linney R. 11. Luamba J. 26. Mugabi B. 4. Thomas T. (C) 16. Wearne S.	1. Cartwright H. (G) 2. Benn J. 11. Charman L. 7. Francis J. 3. John C. 9. Johnson D. 6. Kouogun M. 18. Miley J. 4. Parkes T. (C) 14. Sheron N. 23. Topalloj B.
Substitutes
7. Ajiboye D. 29. Armstrong L. 5. Feeney M. 24. Grant J. 25. Lewis H. (G) 8. Whelan C. 22. Williams J.	24. Dacosta Gonzalez M. 28. Daly M. 8. Ferguson N. 15. Hunter J. 27. Oliver V. 40. Smith A. (G) 38. Walker B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Harper C. ⚽, Linney R. (A),
14', Mugabi B. ↓, Feeney M. ↑,
38', Cartwright H. ↓, Smith A. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Topalloj B. ↓, Daly M. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Francis J. ⚽,
61', Thomas T. ↓, Grant J. ↑,
67', Parkes T. ↓, Walker B. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Kelly G. ⚽, Harper C. (A),
78', Charman L. ↓, Oliver V. ↑,
79', Johnson D. ↓, Ferguson N. ↑,
89', 3 - 1, Feeney M. ⚽, Linney R. (A),
90', Linney R. ↓, Armstrong L. ↑,
90', Luamba J. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
90+1', Wearne S. ↓, Whelan C. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Carlisle is the team to beat.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 30:16. (average 2.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlisle won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:9. (average 2.4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English National League
27.09.25	Carlisle United - Rochdale	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	York City - Carlisle United	5:0 ✺
20.09.25	Altrincham - Carlisle United	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Carlisle United - Aldershot Town	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Carlisle United - Truro City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLWWW
- Hartlepool United
English National League
27.09.25	Hartlepool United - Tamworth	1:1 ✺
23.09.25	Gateshead - Hartlepool United	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Aldershot Town - Hartlepool United	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Hartlepool United - Brackley Town	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	Forest Green Rovers - Hartlepool United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
24.01.23	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	3:1
08.10.22	Hartlepool United - Carlisle United	1:3
18.01.22	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	0:0
English EFL Trophy
31.08.21	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	4:3 penalties
English League Two
28.08.21	Hartlepool United - Carlisle United	2:1
14.04.17	Hartlepool United - Carlisle United	1:1
15.10.16	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	3:2

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