Match Info

National League - Round 14

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hartlepool United		York City

	1	X	2
	3.6	4.1	1.75
	3.4	3.7	1.78
	3.6	3.9	1.82
	3.99	3.89	1.83
	3.51	3.87	1.88	Watch
	3.6	3.82	1.85
	3.45	3.75	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↑ (3.04)	3.86 ↑ (3.48)	1.81 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
25.6%

Draw
23.8%

York City
50.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

26.5%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

25.7%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

York City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting York City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for York City than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for York City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Hartlepool United - York City Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Hartlepool will win (votes: 1 - 25%). York will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. York (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Evans G. (G) 2. Benn J. 5. Kouogun M. 24. Dacosta Gonzalez M. 23. Topalloj B. 4. Parkes T. (C) 7. Francis J. 14. Sheron N. 18. Miley J. 28. Daly M. 11. Charman L.	1. Male H. (G) 4. Fagan-Walcott M. 6. Palmer A. 3. Kitching M. 8. Hunt A. 21. Boateng H. 23. Felix J. 12. Grey J. 30. Newby A. 22. Olley G. 10. Pearce O.
Substitutes
16. Featherstone N. 8. Ferguson N. 15. Hunter J. 9. Johnson D. 27. Oliver V. 40. Smith A. (G) 38. Walker B.	28. Banks O. 18. Batty D. 14. Brookes B. 2. Fallowfield R. 26. McLaughlin P. 7. Sinclair T. 31. Sykes-Kenworthy G. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Newby A. ⚽,
28', Pearce O. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', Dacosta Gonzalez M. 🟨,
52', Daly M. 🟨,
61', Dacosta Gonzalez M. ↓, Oliver V. ↑,
62', Grey J. ↓, Banks O. ↑,
62', Olley G. ↓, Batty D. ↑,
78', Daly M. ↓, Ferguson N. ↑,
85', Newby A. ↓, Brookes B. ↑,
85', Felix J. ↓, Fallowfield R. ↑,
86', 0 - 2, Brookes B. ⚽, Banks O. (A),
88', 1 - 2, Oliver V. ⚽,
89', Pearce O. ↓, Sinclair T. ↑,
90', Miley J. ↓, Johnson D. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hartlepool won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

York might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Hartlepool won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Hartlepool won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Hartlepool United - the odds 3.04 are the expected chance of winning is 30.35%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English National League
01.10.25	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Hartlepool United - Tamworth	1:1 ✺
23.09.25	Gateshead - Hartlepool United	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Aldershot Town - Hartlepool United	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Hartlepool United - Brackley Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LTWLT
- York City
English National League
01.10.25	York City - Scunthorpe United	1:3 ✺
27.09.25	Forest Green Rovers - York City	1:1 ✺
23.09.25	York City - Carlisle United	5:0 ✺
20.09.25	York City - Solihull Moors	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Braintree Town - York City	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
01.03.25	Hartlepool United - York City	0:1
09.11.24	York City - Hartlepool United	5:3
27.01.24	Hartlepool United - York City	2:1
18.11.23	York City - Hartlepool United	1:3
Club Friendly
17.07.19	York City - Hartlepool United	2:1
English League Two
16.04.16	Hartlepool United - York City	2:1
15.08.15	York City - Hartlepool United	1:2

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