Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 27

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday


	Gainsborough Trinity		Morpeth Town

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.45	4.15
	1.71	4	4.24	Watch
	1.62	3.7	4.2
	1.66	4.06	4.51
	1.63	4	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.77)	3.84 ↑ (3.65)	4.29 ↑ (4.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gainsborough Trinity
54.8%

Draw
23.8%

Morpeth Town
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

25.4%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

24.8%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gainsborough Trinity has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Morpeth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Gainsborough Trinity - Morpeth Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gainsborough (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
81', 1 - 0, Leckie J. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gainsborough won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Morpeth may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gainsborough is seen as the favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Gainsborough won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:14. (average 0.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Gainsborough won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Gainsborough	10	5	1	4	20:14	6	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gainsborough Trinity
English NPL Premier Division
01.01.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Cleethorpes Town	2:0 ✺
26.12.25	Guiseley - Gainsborough Trinity	3:2 ✺
20.12.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Ilkeston	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Stocksbridge Park Steels	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Warrington Town - Gainsborough Trinity	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLTTW
- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
10.01.26	Ilkeston - Morpeth Town	3:1 ✺
01.01.26	Morpeth Town - Stockton Town	0:2 ✺
26.12.25	Whitby Town - Morpeth Town	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Hebburn Town - Morpeth Town	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Morpeth Town - Prescot Cables	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
02.12.25	Morpeth Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:1
21.12.24	Morpeth Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:0
13.08.24	Gainsborough Trinity - Morpeth Town	3:1
13.01.24	Gainsborough Trinity - Morpeth Town	0:2
09.09.23	Morpeth Town - Gainsborough Trinity	2:0
14.01.23	Morpeth Town - Gainsborough Trinity	2:0
25.10.22	Gainsborough Trinity - Morpeth Town	1:1

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