Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 26

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday


	Ilkeston		Morpeth Town

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	3.3
	2.02	3.73	3.26	Watch
	2	3.25	3.1
	2.01	3.71	3.3
	2	3.6	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.18)	3.52 ↓ (3.57)	3.23 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilkeston
45.8%

Draw
26%

Morpeth Town
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

26%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

25.7%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilkeston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Morpeth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilkeston than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Ilkeston - Morpeth Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Brayson J. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
50', 1 - 1, Parker S. ⚽,
75', 2 - 1, Kirby-Moore H. ⚽,
90+6', 3 - 1, Kirby-Moore H. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 13 and 17).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ilkeston may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ilkeston will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilkeston won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 2.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ilkeston won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 3.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
21	Ilkeston	12	2	1	9	7:26	-19	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilkeston FC
English NPL Premier Division
03.01.26	Hyde United - Ilkeston	2:2 ✺
26.12.25	Ilkeston - Rushall Olympic	5:1 ✺
20.12.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Ilkeston	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Ilkeston - Hednesford Town	0:3 ✺
29.11.25	United of Manchester - Ilkeston	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWTLL
- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
01.01.26	Morpeth Town - Stockton Town	0:2 ✺
26.12.25	Whitby Town - Morpeth Town	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Hebburn Town - Morpeth Town	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Morpeth Town - Prescot Cables	2:0 ✺
02.12.25	Morpeth Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
09.08.25	Morpeth Town - Ilkeston	1:2
18.01.25	Ilkeston - Morpeth Town	4:2
08.10.24	Morpeth Town - Ilkeston	1:2
20.04.24	Ilkeston - Morpeth Town	3:2
18.11.23	Morpeth Town - Ilkeston	2:1

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