The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Gamba Osaka 49.3%
Draw 26.3%
Sagan Tosu 24.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
57.3%
23.7%
19%
Our Initial ML Estimation
58%
23.4%
18.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gamba Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gamba Osaka's form might have worsened.
Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sagan Tosu's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (+8.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gamba Osaka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sagan Tosu, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
75%
0%
25%
Gamba Osaka - Sagan Tosu Predictions
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Tosu will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Confidence interval (95%) for Gamba Osaka: 50.5% โ 99.5%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Ichimori J. (G) 2. Fukuoka S. 5. Miura G. 20. Nakatani S. 4. Kurokawa K. 23. Dawhan 16. Suzuki T. 10. Kurata S. 13. Sakamoto I. 97. Welton 7. Usami T.
71. Park Il-gyu (G) 42. Harada W. 2. Yamazaki K. 20. Kim Tae-Hyeon 88. Naganuma Y. 21. Horigome Y. 5. Kawahara S. 7. Tezuka K. 32. Sakaiya K. 22. Togashi C. 99. Marcelo Ryan
Substitutes
11. Jebali I. 15. Kishimoto T. 6. Lavi N. 8. Meshino R. 27. Mito R. 40. Toyama S. 31. Zhang A. (G)
11. Araujo V. 6. Fukuta A. 41. Kabayama R. 23. Kikuchi T. 28. Maruhashi Y. 1. Riera Rodriguez A. (G) 13. Yokoyama A.
Coaches
Poyatos D.
Kawai K.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Yamazaki K. 🟨,
32', Togashi C. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Naganuma Y. ⚽, Tezuka K. (A),
45+3', 1 - 1, Sakamoto I. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Sakaiya K. 🟥,
59', Horigome Y. ↓, Kikuchi T. ↑,
61', Kurata S. ↓, Toyama S. ↑,
73', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Fukuta A. ↑,
75', Fukuoka S. ↓, Kishimoto T. ↑,
81', Sakamoto I. ↓, Jebali I. ↑,
81', Suzuki T. ↓, Lavi N. ↑,
83', Tezuka K. ↓, Kabayama R. ↑,
83', Togashi C. ↓, Yokoyama A. ↑,
90+10', 2 - 1, Miura G. ⚽,
Preview
Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 13 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Gamba Osaka won 1.
Recent matches Gamba Osaka is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Tosu has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Tosu could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Gamba Osaka will have a mini benefit in this match.
Last 20 head-to-head matches Gamba Osaka won 9 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 28-24.
Including matches at home between the teams Gamba Osaka won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 18-11.
Watch
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Ichimori J. (G) 
Dawhan 
Park Il-gyu (G) 
Jebali I. 
Lavi N. 
Riera Rodriguez A. (G) 
