Match Info

EFL Trophy

Date: 22 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Priestfield Stadium (Gillingham)


	Gillingham		Cambridge United

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.6	2.1
	3.00	3.20	2.05
	3.15	3.45	1.96
	3.01	3.56	2.19
	2.9	3.62	2.25	Watch
	2.95	3.45	2.1
	2.92	3.38	2.17	Watch
	2.9	3.4	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.33)	3.46 ↓ (3.98)	2.13 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gillingham
30.9%

Draw
26.4%

Cambridge United
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

23.5%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

23%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gillingham's form might have worsened.

Cambridge United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cambridge United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gillingham, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambridge United than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cambridge United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	33.3%	20%

Gillingham - Cambridge United Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Gillingham will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Cambridge will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gillingham: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gillingham (votes: 1 - 50%). Cambridge (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Cambridge (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Cambridge (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Gillingham (votes: 1 - 25%). Cambridge (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Holtam T. (G) 5. Smith A. 20. Daley J. 26. Dobbs L. 18. Kendall S. 17. Antwi C. 6. Coleman E. 32. Dayal L. 12. McCleary G. (C) 27. Luxton M. 29. Webster H.	13. Gabe Breeze (G) 33. Herd D. 15. Heffernan C. 6. Watts K. (C) 22. Bradshaw Z. 8. Moxon O. 17. Mpanzu P. 10. Knight B. 27. McConnell G. 7. Heath I. 9. Appere L.
Substitutes
31. Beszant C. 30. Booth S. 23. Dack B. 9. Goodwin W. 28. Theodore D. 24. Waldock H. 1. Wright O. (G)	4. Ball D. 32. Efobi D. 25. Hughes B. (G) 19. Lavery S. 30. McDougald L. 41. Murefu J.
Coaches
Ainsworth G.	Harris N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
24', 0 - 1, Bradshaw Z. ⚽, McConnell G. (A),
31', 1 - 1, Dayal L. ⚽, Luxton M. (A),
34', 1 - 2, Mpanzu P. ⚽, Knight B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', McCleary G. ↓, Goodwin W. ↑,
46', Coleman E. ↓, Dack B. ↑,
57', 1 - 3, Appere L. ⚽, Knight B. (A),
59', Mpanzu P. 🟨,
62', Knight B. ↓, Murefu J. ↑,
62', Mpanzu P. ↓, Ball D. ↑,
64', Daley J. 🟨,
75', Antwi C. ↓, Beszant C. ↑,
75', Dobbs L. ↓, Booth S. ↑,
78', Herd D. 🟨,
87', 1 - 4, Heath I. (Penalty Awarded),
88', Heath I. ↓, McDougald L. ↑,
88', Appere L. ↓, Efobi D. ↑,
88', Kendall S. ↓, Theodore D. ↑,

Preview

Gillingham is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Cambridge has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Gillingham has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:8 (averaging 0.8:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gillingham against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals (averaging 1:0.5 per game).

Outrights of English EFL Trophy for now

Cambridge Utd: 0.8% Gillingham: 0.8%

Last Results with these Odds

Cambridge United - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.38%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gillingham FC
English League Two
19.09.26	Gillingham - Bristol Rovers	3:0 ✺
12.09.26	Gillingham - Tranmere Rovers	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Rochdale - Gillingham	1:4 ✺
01.09.26	Chesterfield - Gillingham	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Gillingham - Northampton Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.8 WWWTT
- Cambridge United
English League One
19.09.26	Oxford United - Cambridge United	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Cambridge United - Reading	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Burton Albion - Cambridge United	2:2 ✺
01.09.26	Bradford City - Cambridge United	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Cambridge United - Huddersfield Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
14.03.26	Cambridge United - Gillingham	5:0
26.12.25	Gillingham - Cambridge United	1:1
English League One
08.02.22	Gillingham - Cambridge United	1:0
28.09.21	Cambridge United - Gillingham	0:2
English EFL Trophy
08.12.20	Cambridge United - Gillingham	2:0

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