Match Info

League Two - Round 5

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Spotland Stadium (Rochdale)

Referee: Robinson J. (Nir)


	Rochdale		Gillingham

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3.40	Watch
	2.10	3.40	3.30
	2.00	3.25	3.35	Watch
	2.16	3.57	3.43
	2.11	3.42	3.3	Watch
	2.08	3.50	3.35
	2.08	3.40	3.35	Watch
	2.06	3.35	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (1.98)	3.39 ↑ (3.35)	3.35 ↓ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochdale
44.8%

Draw
27.5%

Gillingham
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

27.5%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

25.9%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochdale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Gillingham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Rochdale - Gillingham Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Gillingham will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ramming N. (G) 2. Tasker C. 22. Moss D. 3. Wilson K. 21. Taylor K. 14. Francis E. 17. Adeeko B. 19. Hannant L. 39. Brown D. 11. Silcott-Duberry Z. 9. Dieseruvwe E. (C)	1. Wright O. (G) 5. Smith A. 19. Beckles O. (C) 26. Dobbs L. 35. Obiero Z. 22. Freeman N. 16. Brophy J. 24. Waldock H. 3. McManus C. 9. Goodwin W. 10. Hale R.
Substitutes
13. Adebayo-Rowling T. 8. Gilmour H. 40. Henderson I. 45. Middleton G. 26. Sherring S. 18. Smith J. 20. Waller S. (G)	20. Daley J. 13. Holtam T. (G) 18. Kendall S. 34. King E. 12. McCleary G. 14. McKenzie R. 11. Sillah L.
Coaches
Watson I.	Ainsworth G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', McManus C. 🟨,
18', Goodwin W. ↓, Sillah L. ↑,
18', Obiero Z. ↓, King E. ↑,
33', 0 - 1, Brophy J. ⚽, Freeman N. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', McManus C. ↓, McKenzie R. ↑,
51', Francis E. 🟨,
53', 0 - 2, Beckles O. ⚽,
56', 0 - 3, Wilson K. (Own goal),
60', Francis E. 🟨,
64', Dobbs L. ↓, Daley J. ↑,
66', Silcott-Duberry Z. ↓, Gilmour H. ↑,
68', 0 - 4, Brophy J. ⚽, King E. (A),
73', Waldock H. ↓, Kendall S. ↑,
81', Hannant L. ↓, Smith J. ↑,
81', Brown D. ↓, Middleton G. ↑,
87', 1 - 4, Tasker C. ⚽, Middleton G. (A),
88', Dieseruvwe E. ↓, Henderson I. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rochdale won 0.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Rochdale could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Rochdale: Beckwith S. (Inactive) Hayes C. (Inactive) Jenkins W. (Inactive) Maguire L. (Inactive) Pettit C. (Inactive) Rodney D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Gillingham: Coleman E. (Inactive) Dack B. (Inactive) Little A. (Inactive) Maclorg L. (Inactive) Tabares S. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Gillingham: Albarus Z. (Inactive) Gordon L. (Inactive) Harris K. (Inactive)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Rochdale won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Rochdale won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.8:1.3).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Gillingham: 2% Rochdale: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	15:10	5	16
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	11:12	-1	14

Last Results with these Odds

Rochdale - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 46.38%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Gillingham - the odds 3.52 are the expected chance of winning is 26.16%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
01.09.26	Rochdale - Shrewsbury Town	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Colchester United - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Rochdale - Crawley Town	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Newport County - Rochdale	3:0 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Bradford City - Rochdale	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLLLL
- Gillingham FC
English League Two
01.09.26	Chesterfield - Gillingham	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Gillingham - Northampton Town	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Fleetwood Town - Gillingham	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	Gillingham - Walsall	0:3 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Gillingham - Luton Town	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
18.02.23	Rochdale - Gillingham	0:2
06.08.22	Gillingham - Rochdale	1:0
English League One
23.01.21	Gillingham - Rochdale	2:2
19.12.20	Rochdale - Gillingham	1:4
25.01.20	Rochdale - Gillingham	2:2
29.12.19	Gillingham - Rochdale	1:0
30.03.19	Gillingham - Rochdale	1:1

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