Match Info

SOUTH KOREA: Korean Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Gimcheon Stadium (Gimcheon)


	Gimcheon Sangmu		Busan I Park

	1	X	2
	1.36	4	7	Watch
	1.38	4.33	6.5
	1.4	4.5	7
	1.4	4.51	8
	1.4	4.52	7.78
	1.33	4.33	7.5
	1.39	4.49	7.26	Watch
	1.39	4.5	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.77)	4.4 ↑ (3.68)	7.28 ↑ (3.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimcheon Sangmu
66.5%

Draw
20.9%

Busan I Park
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

24.7%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.6%

24.6%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimcheon Sangmu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gimcheon Sangmu's performance.

Busan I Park has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Busan I Park might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimcheon Sangmu than the current prediction. (-14.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gimcheon Sangmu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Busan I Park than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Busan I Park could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Gimcheon Sangmu - Busan I Park Predictions

Users Predictions: Gimcheon Sangmu will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Lee Dong-hoon ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Kim Min-Jun ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
90', 1 - 2, Lee Seung-Ki ⚽,
90+8', 2 - 2, Lee Jin-Yong ⚽,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
105', 3 - 2, Goo Bon-Cheul ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gimcheon Sangmu won 2.

Gimcheon Sangmu is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Busan I Park is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Busan I Park could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Gimcheon Sangmu is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Gimcheon Sangmu to win the game is with odds 1.73.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Gimcheon Sangmu won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 24-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Gimcheon Sangmu won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimcheon Sangmu FC
South Korean K-League 1
13.04.24	Jeju - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:2 ✺
06.04.24	Gimcheon Sangmu - Gwangju	2:1 ✺
03.04.24	FC Seoul - Gimcheon Sangmu	5:1 ✺
30.03.24	Suwon - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:4 ✺
17.03.24	Gimcheon Sangmu - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WWLWW
- Busan I Park
South Korean K-League 2
13.04.24	Busan I Park - Anyang	3:4 ✺
10.04.24	Cheonan City - Busan I Park	2:4 ✺
07.04.24	Busan I Park - Jeonnam Dragons	0:1 ✺
31.03.24	Suwon Bluewings - Busan I Park	0:1 ✺
South Korean Cup
24.03.24	Busan I Park - Ulsan Citizen	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 2
29.08.23	Busan I Park - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:0
10.07.23	Gimcheon Sangmu - Busan I Park	2:1
19.03.23	Busan I Park - Gimcheon Sangmu	3:1
31.10.21	Gimcheon Sangmu - Busan I Park	2:2
23.08.21	Busan I Park - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:6
05.05.21	Gimcheon Sangmu - Busan I Park	1:0
21.03.21	Busan I Park - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:1

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