Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 5 April 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo (La Plata)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)


	Gimnasia La Plata		Universitario de Deportes

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.75	5.25	Watch
	1.65	3.6	5.25
	1.66	3.55	5.5
	1.66	3.65	5.74
	1.63	3.4	5.25
	1.7	3.58	5.2	Watch
	1.67	3.55	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.43)	3.58 ↓ (3.91)	5.31 ↓ (7.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnasia La Plata
56.3%

Draw
26.1%

Universitario de Deportes
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

23.7%

11.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.6%

25.2%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnasia La Plata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gimnasia La Plata's form might have worsened.

Universitario de Deportes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Universitario de Deportes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnasia La Plata than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gimnasia La Plata, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Universitario de Deportes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	9.1%	36.4%

Gimnasia La Plata - Universitario de Deportes Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Gimnasia La Plata will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Uni de Deportes will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gimnasia La Plata: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Gimnasia La Plata is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Universitario de Deportes is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Universitario de Deportes could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Gimnasia La Plata is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnasia La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
31.03.23	Rosario Central - Gimnasia La Plata	3:1 ✺
19.03.23	Gimnasia La Plata - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1 ✺
11.03.23	San Lorenzo - Gimnasia La Plata	4:0 ✺
04.03.23	Gimnasia La Plata - Colón	0:0 ✺
27.02.23	Barracas Central - Gimnasia La Plata	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLTL
- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
31.03.23	Deportivo Garcilaso - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
24.03.23	Universitario de Deportes - Cienciano	3:0 ✺
18.03.23	Universitario de Deportes - ADT Tarma	3:1 ✺
13.03.23	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Universitario de Deportes	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.03.23	Universitario de Deportes - Cienciano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TWWWW

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