Match Info

SPAIN: COPA DEL REY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 5 January 2023, Thursday

Location: Nou Estadi de Tarragona (Tarragona)

Referee: Diaz de Mera I. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Sport 1


	Gimnástic de Tarragona		Osasuna

	1	X	2
	5	4.75	1.55	Watch
	5.25	4.1	1.51	Watch
	6	4.15	1.53
	5.4	4.2	1.52
	5.71	4.03	1.54
	5.5	4	1.5	Watch
	5.95	4.25	1.52	Watch
	5.6	4.3	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.55 ↑ (3.75)	4.22 ↑ (3.6)	1.53 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnástic de Tarragona
16.8%

Draw
22.1%

Osasuna
61.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.2%

25.3%

50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

24.8%

51.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnástic de Tarragona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gimnástic de Tarragona's form might have worsened.

Osasuna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Osasuna's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnástic de Tarragona than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gimnástic de Tarragona, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Osasuna, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.8%	7.7%	79.5%

Gimnástic de Tarragona - Osasuna Predictions

Users Predictions: Osasuna will win (31 of 39 users predict this - 79.49%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.82% – 92.16%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gimnàstic won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Osasuna could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Osasuna have a series of guest games.

In this match Osasuna is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Gimnàstic won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Gimnàstic won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnástic de Tarragona
Spanish Copa del Rey
22.12.22	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Málaga	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
18.12.22	Alcoyano - Gimnástic de Tarragona	1:1 ✺
11.12.22	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Barcelona B	1:0 ✺
08.12.22	Osasuna B - Gimnástic de Tarragona	3:0 ✺
04.12.22	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Sabadell	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WTWLL
- Osasuna
Spanish LaLiga
31.12.22	Real Sociedad - Osasuna	2:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
21.12.22	Arnedo - Osasuna	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
14.12.22	Girona - Osasuna	1:1 ✺
13.12.22	Brest - Osasuna	0:3 ✺
10.12.22	Osasuna - Lorient	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
02.03.19	Osasuna - Gimnástic de Tarragona	1:0
15.09.18	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Osasuna	1:0
06.05.18	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Osasuna	0:2
18.01.18	Osasuna - Gimnástic de Tarragona	0:2
11.06.16	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Osasuna	2:3
08.06.16	Osasuna - Gimnástic de Tarragona	3:1
25.05.16	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Osasuna	1:0

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