Match Info

J3 League - Round 10

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu (Kitakyushu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Giravanz Kitakyushu		Sagamihara

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.95	2.7
	2.4	3	2.85
	2.61	3.1	2.91
	2.62	2.94	2.92	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.8
	2.5	2.88	2.77	Watch
	2.4	3	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.4)	2.97 ↓ (3.2)	2.83 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Giravanz Kitakyushu
36.8%

Draw
30.8%

Sagamihara
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

28.2%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

28.7%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Giravanz Kitakyushu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Sagamihara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Giravanz Kitakyushu than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagamihara than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Giravanz Kitakyushu - Sagamihara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Sugimoto M. (G) 22. Yamawaki K. 50. Sugiyama K. 44. Tsujioka Y. 76. Sakamoto K. 34. Takayoshi S. 14. Izawa H. 17. Okano R. 7. Hirahara R. 99. Kabayama R. 18. Watanabe S.	46. Baumann N. (G) 2. Kato D. 3. Pytlik K. 33. Tokida M. 4. Shimakawa T. 22. Fukui K. 6. Tokunaga Y. 36. Nakashio D. 16. Takano R. 14. Takagi A. 23. Kato T.
Substitutes
4. Hasegawa K. 9. Kawabe S. 11. Kiyama K. 29. Koh S. 8. Machida Y. 32. Takayanagi F. 27. Tanaka Y. (G) 25. Tsubogo R. 24. Yoshinaga M.	99. Ismaila O. 7. Kawano R. 18. Miki K. 1. Miura M. (G) 11. Muto Y. 28. Ogasawara K. 9. Rafael Furtado 17. Takeuchi T. 5. Tashiro M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Kato T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hirahara R. ↓, Koh S. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Izawa H. ⚽, Kabayama R. (A),
53', Tokunaga Y. 🟨,
58', Takano R. ↓, Kawano R. ↑,
67', Kato T. ↓, Ogasawara K. ↑,
67', Takagi A. ↓, Rafael Furtado ↑,
76', Tokida M. 🟨,
78', Okano R. ↓, Kawabe S. ↑,
78', Kabayama R. ↓, Machida Y. ↑,
78', Tokunaga Y. ↓, Muto Y. ↑,
78', Nakashio D. ↓, Takeuchi T. ↑,
88', Watanabe S. ↓, Yoshinaga M. ↑,
90+3', Izawa H. ↓, Takayanagi F. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 17).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Giravanz won 2.

Recent matches Giravanz is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sagamihara is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Giravanz could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Giravanz won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11:10 (average 1.4:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Giravanz won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:5 (average 1.3:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Sagamihara - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 34.1%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Giravanz Kitakyushu
Japan J League Cup
16.04.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Yokohama FC	1:2 ✺
Japan J3 League
12.04.25	Fukushima United - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Osaka	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Giravanz Kitakyushu	0:2 ✺
23.03.25	Kagoshima United - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLWWL
- SC Sagamihara
Japan J3 League
13.04.25	Sagamihara - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Ryūkyū - Sagamihara	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Sagamihara - Kamatamare Sanuki	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Sagamihara - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:3 ✺
Japan J3 League
23.03.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
06.10.24	Sagamihara - Giravanz Kitakyushu	0:3
24.02.24	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Sagamihara	0:1
30.09.23	Sagamihara - Giravanz Kitakyushu	2:1
29.04.23	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Sagamihara	1:1
06.11.22	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Sagamihara	3:1
04.06.22	Sagamihara - Giravanz Kitakyushu	3:2
Japan J2 League
30.10.21	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Sagamihara	1:2

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