Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Relegation Group - Round 37

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Mourneview Park (Lurgan)

Referee: Clarke T. (Nir)


	Glenavon		Crusaders

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.4	3.3
	2.18	3.58	3.36
	1.95	3.46	3.49	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.3
	2.05	3.32	3.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.77)	3.41 ↓ (3.66)	3.33 ↓ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Glenavon
45.1%

Draw
27.1%

Crusaders
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

25.1%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

24.3%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Glenavon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Glenavon's form might have worsened.

Crusaders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Glenavon than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Glenavon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crusaders than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Crusaders, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Glenavon - Crusaders Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carney J. (G) 3. Burns P. 10. Campbell P. 27. Carlin S. 28. Falls C. 18. Ferris N. 29. McGovern P. 6. McKeown B. (C) 2. McMullan J. 4. Murphy H. 20. Wilson B.	1. Dibaga M. (G) 43. Barr L. 9. Brooks A. 22. Bruce C. 19. Bryden F. 11. Dunlop E. 14. Forsythe J. 2. Forsythe K. 7. McKechnie K. 6. Weir R. (C) 16. Williamson J.
Substitutes
23. Gilmore G. 24. Harkin M. 30. Lindsay C. 17. Lowe K. 32. Mountney J. 14. O'Kane O. 31. Quinn N.	42. Anderson L. 4. Blaney J. 8. Jewitt-White H. 27. Maguire T. 21. Nixon S. 29. Rough S. 10. Thorndike F.
Coaches
O'Connor M.	Caddell D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', 🟨,
17', 🟨,
33', 🟨,
42', 🟨,
45+4', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 0 - 1, Bryden F. ⚽,
86', 🟨,
90+4', 🟥,
90+5', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Glenavon won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Glenavon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Glenavon is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Glenavon won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:34. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Glenavon won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:17. (average 1.6:1.7).

Outrights of Northern Irish Premiership for now

Crusaders: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Crusaders	10	5	0	5	15:18	-3	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Glenavon FC
Northern Irish Premiership
11.04.26	Bangor - Glenavon	0:0 ✺
07.04.26	Ballymena United - Glenavon	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Glenavon - Portadown	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Glenavon - Larne	0:3 ✺
14.03.26	Crusaders - Glenavon	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TTTLW
- Crusaders FC
Northern Irish Premiership
11.04.26	Crusaders - Portadown	4:0 ✺
07.04.26	Crusaders - Bangor	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Carrick Rangers - Crusaders	6:1 ✺
21.03.26	Portadown - Crusaders	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Crusaders - Glenavon	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
14.03.26	Crusaders - Glenavon	0:3
15.11.25	Crusaders - Glenavon	4:1
27.09.25	Glenavon - Crusaders	0:2
22.02.25	Glenavon - Crusaders	0:1
17.12.24	Glenavon - Crusaders	3:1
14.09.24	Crusaders - Glenavon	0:1
24.02.24	Crusaders - Glenavon	2:0

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