Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 33

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Mourneview Park (Lurgan)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Nifl TV
World	Onefootball


	Glenavon		Larne

	1	X	2
	5	3.9	1.55
	5.3	4.05	1.52
	5.35	4.04	1.61
	5.01	4.07	1.56	Watch
	5	3.8	1.57
	5.22	3.8	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.15 ↓ (5.76)	3.94 ↓ (4.32)	1.56 ↑ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Glenavon
17.8%

Draw
23.3%

Larne
58.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16%

21.3%

62.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.3%

20.4%

65.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Glenavon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Larne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Glenavon than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Larne than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Larne could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	14.3%	57.1%

Glenavon - Larne Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Glenavon will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Larne will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carney J. (G) 3. Burns P. 10. Campbell P. 27. Carlin S. 28. Falls C. 18. Ferris N. 36. McGerrigan L. 29. McGovern P. 6. McKeown B. 2. McMullan J. 4. Murphy H.	1. Ferguson R. (G) 26. Bent D. 23. Cosgrove T. 4. Donnelly A. 6. Gallagher C. 11. Graham S. 21. Millar L. 9. O'Neill P. 3. Ridley M. 29. Ryan A. 47. Simpson J.
Substitutes
5. Cartwright L. 23. Gilmore G. 30. Lindsay C. 17. Lowe K. 11. Mallon S. 14. O'Kane O. 31. Quinn N.	15. Doherty R. 36. Graham D. (G) 30. Lusty M. 22. McEneff J. 7. McKendry C. 8. Randall M. 46. Wallace L.
Coaches
O'Connor M.	Haveron G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Murphy H. ↓, Quinn N. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
63', 0 - 1, O'Neill P. ⚽,
69', 0 - 2, Millar L. ⚽,
70', Simpson J. ↓, Lusty M. ↑,
70', O'Neill P. ↓, Doherty R. ↑,
75', Carlin S. ↓, Lowe K. ↑,
75', Campbell P. ↓, Gilmore G. ↑,
83', Graham S. 🟨,
90+4', 0 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Glenavon is NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group )

Larne is Qualified for NIFL Premiership (Championship Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Glenavon won 0.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Glenavon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Larne is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Glenavon won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 13:46. (average 0.7:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Glenavon won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 4:15. (average 0.5:1.9).

Outrights of Northern Irish Premiership for now

Larne: 29.31%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Larne	6	5	1	0	12:3	9	16

Last Results with these Odds

Larne - the odds 1.47 are the expected chance of winning is 62.68%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Glenavon FC
Northern Irish Premiership
14.03.26	Crusaders - Glenavon	0:3 ✺
28.02.26	Glenavon - Portadown	3:0 ✺
24.02.26	Ballymena United - Glenavon	2:2 ✺
21.02.26	Bangor - Glenavon	1:3 ✺
14.02.26	Glenavon - Linfield	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWTWL
- Larne FC
Northern Irish Premiership
13.03.26	Larne - Dungannon Swifts	2:1 ✺
Northern Irish Cup
06.03.26	Glentoran - Larne	1:2 penalties ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
28.02.26	Ballymena United - Larne	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Larne - Linfield	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Larne - Carrick Rangers	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
21.11.25	Larne - Glenavon	2:1
13.09.25	Larne - Glenavon	1:0
22.03.25	Glenavon - Larne	0:1
18.02.25	Larne - Glenavon	1:1
17.09.24	Glenavon - Larne	0:0
16.03.24	Larne - Glenavon	6:1
Northern Irish Cup
03.02.24	Larne - Glenavon	5:0

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