Match Info

Veikkausliiga

Date: 13 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Mustapekka Areena (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	Gnistan		Haka

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.7	2.75	Watch
	2.15	3.6	2.95
	2.17	3.75	3.05	Watch
	2.16	3.86	3.22
				Watch
	2.15	3.5	2.9
	2.15	3.76	3.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.3)	3.7 ↓ (3.73)	3 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gnistan
43.6%

Draw
25.2%

Haka
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

25%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

23.8%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gnistan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Haka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gnistan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Haka than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Haka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	36.4%	27.3%

Gnistan - Haka Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Gnistan will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Haka will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 31.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gnistan: 15.1% – 58.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Gnistan (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Haka (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Haka (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Haka (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Gnistan (1.86) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Gnistan (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Haka (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Craninx A. (G) 12. Arko-Mensah E. 44. Bashkirov E. 3. Heiskanen S. 28. Kabashi A. 10. Latonen J. 40. Ojala J. 4. Pettersson O. 22. Raitala J. 16. Ritari M. 7. Vayrynen T.	1. Hughes L. (G) 9. Akintunde J. 16. Bulgakov D. 3. Friberg N. 4. Houston J. 11. Hudd R. 8. Lindholm S. 18. Mommo E. 13. Sallinen O. 99. Sejdiu A. 2. Talo N.
Substitutes
20. Atarah A. 2. Dahlstrom B. 15. Europaeus G. 30. Gunes O. 9. Hafstad D. 13. Lyberopoulos O. (G) 42. Olufunwa O. 5. von Hellens L.	7. Da Sylva J. 5. Gianini Dantas N. 12. Lepola A. (G) 10. Lucas Cini 17. Multanen K. 19. Okyere A. 30. Purosalo V. 6. Romero E. 66. Selander R.
Coaches
Leppalahti J.	Smith A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Craninx A. 🟥,
16', Latonen J. ↓, Lyberopoulos O. ↑,
21', Sejdiu A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Friberg N. ↓, Gianini Dantas N. ↑,
51', Heiskanen S. 🟨,
56', 1 - 0, Pettersson O. ⚽, Vayrynen T. (A),
62', Sejdiu A. ↓, Lucas Cini ↑,
62', Sallinen O. ↓, Multanen K. ↑,
62', Hudd R. ↓, Da Sylva J. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Vayrynen T. (Pen),
73', Talo N. 🟨,
76', Heiskanen S. ↓, Europaeus G. ↑,
76', Kabashi A. ↓, Hafstad D. ↑,
83', Ritari M. ↓, Olufunwa O. ↑,
85', Houston J. ↓, Purosalo V. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gnistan won 1.

Recent performances by Gnistan have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Haka is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gnistan will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Gnistan: Eremenko R. (Inactive) Hanninen V. (Inactive) Marcelo Costa (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Haka: Almen M. (Inactive)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Gnistan won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:22. (average 1.4:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Gnistan won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.5:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IF Gnistan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
07.07.25	KTP Kotka - Gnistan	0:0 ✺
01.07.25	KuPS Kuopio - Gnistan	6:2 ✺
27.06.25	Gnistan - Inter Turku	2:2 ✺
18.06.25	VPS Vaasa - Gnistan	0:0 ✺
14.06.25	Gnistan - KTP Kotka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TLTTW
- FC Haka
Finnish Veikkausliiga
06.07.25	Haka - Inter Turku	0:1 ✺
02.07.25	VPS Vaasa - Haka	1:2 ✺
28.06.25	Haka - Ilves	0:4 ✺
Finnish Cup
24.06.25	Haka - KuPS Kuopio	1:2 penalties ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.06.25	HJK - Haka	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Cup
11.06.25	Haka - Gnistan	3:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga
05.04.25	Haka - Gnistan	3:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
23.02.25	Haka - Gnistan	2:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga
26.10.24	Haka - Gnistan	4:3 penalties
28.07.24	Haka - Gnistan	1:2
05.05.24	Gnistan - Haka	0:3
Club Friendly
13.01.24	Gnistan - Haka	1:1

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