Match Info

Veikkausliiga

Date: 14 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Mustapekka Areena (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	Gnistan		KTP Kotka

	1	X	2
	1.7	4	4	Watch
	1.68	4.1	4.4
	1.73	4.2	4.3	Watch
	1.75	4.38	4.26
	1.65	4.3	4.39	Watch
	1.67	3.9	4.4
	1.71	4.2	4.37	Watch
	1.75	4.25	4.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.64)	4.17 ↓ (4.29)	4.31 ↓ (4.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gnistan
55.4%

Draw
22.7%

KTP Kotka
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

22%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

21.7%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gnistan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

KTP Kotka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KTP Kotka than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Gnistan - KTP Kotka Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gnistan (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 - KTP (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Gnistan (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Gnistan (votes: 2 - 66.7%). KTP (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Craninx A. (G) 42. Olufunwa O. 40. Ojala J. 24. Gnanou R. 3. Heiskanen S. 44. Bashkirov E. 28. Kabashi A. 12. Arko-Mensah E. 9. Hafstad D. 7. Vayrynen T. 10. Latonen J.	33. Zhuk M. (G) 14. Lehtiranta J. 4. Toivio J. 17. Manga T. 21. Sumusalo M. 23. Larsen M. 8. Elle Essouma F. 37. Tanaka A. 77. Weckstrom L. 10. Forsell P. 9. Tarvonen A.
Substitutes
20. Atarah A. 2. Dahlstrom B. 30. Gunes O. 4. Pettersson O. 21. Rokman D. 15. Toivonen H. 25. Tynkkynen J. (G) 11. Vauhkonen E. 6. Woivalin H.	16. Diakite M. (G) 15. Edlund C. 19. Glasson M. 2. Huhtamaki U. 7. Makela J. 22. Oddei B. 26. Paavola M. 18. Seck A. 27. Tulehmo A.
Coaches
Leppalahti J.	Nyholm J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Bashkirov E. 🟨,
20', Lehtiranta J. 🟨,
33', Arko-Mensah E. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Forsell P. ⚽, Sumusalo M. (A),
37', Gnanou R. 🟨,
45+1', Weckstrom L. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Tarvonen A. ↓, Glasson M. ↑,
51', Forsell P. 🟨,
54', Olufunwa O. ↓, Pettersson O. ↑,
54', Hafstad D. ↓, Toivonen H. ↑,
60', Toivio J. 🟨,
65', 1 - 1, Latonen J. ⚽, Heiskanen S. (A),
70', Weckstrom L. ↓, Edlund C. ↑,
75', Heiskanen S. 🟨,
77', Larsen M. ↓, Oddei B. ↑,
84', Forsell P. ↓, Makela J. ↑,
86', Elle Essouma F. ↓, Tulehmo A. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, Latonen J. ⚽,
90+5', Latonen J. ↓, Atarah A. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: ) and 11 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gnistan won 2.

Gnistan has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

KTP has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

KTP may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gnistan is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Gnistan: Eremenko R. (Inactive) Marcelo Costa (Knee Injury) Pettersson O. (Inactive)

There will not play in KTP: Makela J. (Inactive)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Gnistan won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:17. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Gnistan won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IF Gnistan
Finnish Cup
11.06.25	Haka - Gnistan	3:2 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
01.06.25	Gnistan - Ilves	0:2 ✺
Finnish Cup
28.05.25	Gnistan - Ilves	3:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
24.05.25	FF Jaro - Gnistan	1:1 ✺
16.05.25	Gnistan - SJK	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LLWTT
- KTP Kotka
Finnish Veikkausliiga
31.05.25	KTP Kotka - IFK Mariehamn	2:2 ✺
Finnish Cup
28.05.25	KPV Kokkola - KTP Kotka	2:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
23.05.25	KTP Kotka - Haka	0:0 ✺
17.05.25	HJK - KTP Kotka	4:1 ✺
10.05.25	KuPS Kuopio - KTP Kotka	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
01.02.25	Gnistan - KTP Kotka	3:0
Finnish Cup
31.05.23	KTP Kotka - Gnistan	2:1 penalties
Finnish Ykkonen
17.07.22	Gnistan - KTP Kotka	2:1
15.06.22	KTP Kotka - Gnistan	4:0
Finnish Ykkoscup
12.02.22	Gnistan - KTP Kotka	1:1
Finnish Ykkonen
16.09.20	KTP Kotka - Gnistan	4:0
19.07.20	Gnistan - KTP Kotka	0:3

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