Match Info

FINLAND: YKKONEN

Date: 5 August 2023, Saturday

Location: Kallio TN (Helsinki)


	Gnistan		KPV Kokkola

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.75	4.5	Watch
	1.63	3.7	4.33
	1.6	3.85	4.9
	1.71	3.85	4.85
	1.65	3.5	4.5
	1.68	3.92	4.45
	1.65	3.8	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.44)	3.77 ↓ (4)	4.55 ↓ (5.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gnistan
55.4%

Draw
24.4%

KPV Kokkola
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

22.4%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.7%

21.2%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gnistan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gnistan's form might have worsened.

KPV Kokkola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gnistan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KPV Kokkola than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for KPV Kokkola, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Gnistan - KPV Kokkola Predictions

Users Predictions: Gnistan will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Koski J. (C) 30. Mabinda J. 16. Rasimus K. 26. Tiihonen A. 34. Andberg T. 19. Tolonen M. 6. Woivalin H. 17. Sarr M. 10. Latonen J. 25. Malolo R. 9. Markkanen E.	1. Seppa V. (G) 21. Chantzopoulos C. 3. Sipola S. 6. Kujasalo N. 8. Mannstrom S. (C) 22. Akpoveta O. 15. Makinen S. 5. Mahlamaki S. 9. Liukkonen J. 17. Gomes V. 14. Kauppila M.
Substitutes
11. Jarvinen T. 29. Koivunen K. 23. Liikonen K. 33. Linnas O. (G) 24. Sukunda Z. 5. Takamaki T. 7. Weckstrom L.	16. Aberg M. 10. Heiermann H. 33. Lazarev S. (G) 11. Paananen J. 20. Ring A. 4. Uusitalo S. 29. Wegye W.
Coaches
Rantanen J.	Sund C.

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ykkonen (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone Ykkonen (Relegation Group: )).

Gnistan is Qualified for Ykkonen (Championship Group )

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gnistan won 3.

Recent matches Gnistan is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

KPV is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Gnistan have a series of guest games.

In this match Gnistan is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Gnistan won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 16-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Gnistan won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IF Gnistan
Finnish Ykkonen
30.07.23	Mikkelin Palloilijat - Gnistan	0:0 ✺
23.07.23	Gnistan - TPS	0:3 ✺
19.07.23	FF Jaro - Gnistan	2:2 ✺
15.07.23	Ekenäs - Gnistan	1:0 ✺
08.07.23	JJK Jyväskylä - Gnistan	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLTLW
- KPV Kokkola
Finnish Ykkonen
29.07.23	KPV Kokkola - FF Jaro	1:1 ✺
22.07.23	JäPS - KPV Kokkola	0:3 ✺
15.07.23	KPV Kokkola - HIFK	0:4 ✺
06.07.23	TPS - KPV Kokkola	4:1 ✺
01.07.23	KPV Kokkola - Mikkelin Palloilijat	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Ykkonen
27.05.23	KPV Kokkola - Gnistan	1:2
01.07.22	Gnistan - KPV Kokkola	1:2
23.04.22	KPV Kokkola - Gnistan	0:2
28.07.21	Gnistan - KPV Kokkola	0:3
24.06.21	KPV Kokkola - Gnistan	0:2
31.10.20	Gnistan - KPV Kokkola	5:0
22.08.20	KPV Kokkola - Gnistan	6:1

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