Match Info

FINLAND: YKKONEN

Date: 30 July 2023, Sunday

Location: Mikkelin Urheilupuisto (Mikkeli)


	Mikkelin Palloilijat		Gnistan

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.5	2.75	Watch
	2.2	3.3	2.7
	2.28	3.5	2.75
	2.35	3.61	2.93
	2.3	3.25	2.7
	2.29	3.54	2.81
	2.3	3.4	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.73)	3.44 ↑ (3.32)	2.77 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mikkelin Palloilijat
40.2%

Draw
26.7%

Gnistan
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

27.6%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

28.2%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mikkelin Palloilijat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mikkelin Palloilijat's performance.

Gnistan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gnistan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mikkelin Palloilijat than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mikkelin Palloilijat that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gnistan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	16.7%	50%

Mikkelin Palloilijat - Gnistan Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Mikkelin Palloilijat will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Gnistan will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gnistan: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Uronen J. (G) 7. Holtta S. (C) 3. Vehkonen V. 15. Laitinen J. 2. Urgenc B. 21. Luyeye-Lutumba J. 69. Forsell N. 25. Sahimaa L. 20. Orjala N. 16. Stenius S. 23. Ylonen E.	45. Koski J. (C) 30. Mabinda J. 16. Rasimus K. 14. Olander H. 32. Ala-Iso S. 19. Tolonen M. 6. Woivalin H. 20. Medo 23. Liikonen K. 7. Weckstrom L. 9. Markkanen E.
Substitutes
10. Avdi E. 19. Babatunde A. 30. Heikkinen T. (G) 6. Heinonen J. 24. Kilpelainen J. 8. Leinonen N. 34. Ruoppi O.	11. Jarvinen T. 4. Kahisalo L. 29. Koivunen K. 33. Linnas O. (G) 25. Malolo R. 5. Takamaki T. 26. Tiihonen A.
Coaches
Pasoja J.	Rantanen J.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mikkelin Palloilijat won 1.

Mikkelin Palloilijat is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Gnistan is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gnistan could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Mikkelin Palloilijat won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 20-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Mikkelin Palloilijat won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mikkelin Palloilijat
Finnish Ykkonen
22.07.23	FF Jaro - Mikkelin Palloilijat	0:2 ✺
14.07.23	Mikkelin Palloilijat - JäPS	0:2 ✺
09.07.23	Mikkelin Palloilijat - HIFK	2:1 ✺
01.07.23	KPV Kokkola - Mikkelin Palloilijat	2:4 ✺
28.06.23	Mikkelin Palloilijat - KaPa	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WLWWW
- IF Gnistan
Finnish Ykkonen
23.07.23	Gnistan - TPS	0:3 ✺
19.07.23	FF Jaro - Gnistan	2:2 ✺
15.07.23	Ekenäs - Gnistan	1:0 ✺
08.07.23	JJK Jyväskylä - Gnistan	2:3 ✺
02.07.23	Gnistan - KaPa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Ykkonen
21.05.23	Gnistan - Mikkelin Palloilijat	1:1
Finnish Ykkoscup
21.01.23	Gnistan - Mikkelin Palloilijat	2:0
Finnish Ykkonen
08.10.22	Gnistan - Mikkelin Palloilijat	2:1
28.08.22	Gnistan - Mikkelin Palloilijat	0:2
18.06.22	Mikkelin Palloilijat - Gnistan	1:1
22.08.21	Mikkelin Palloilijat - Gnistan	2:1
13.06.21	Gnistan - Mikkelin Palloilijat	0:2

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