Match Info

Date: 18 September 2022, Sunday

Location: De Adelaarshorst (Deventer)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Go Ahead Eagles		Emmen

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.3	2.87	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.8
	2.43	3.4	2.88
	2.46	3.3	2.8
	2.53	3.4	2.96
	2.45	3.3	2.75	Watch
	2.43	3.45	2.78	Watch
	2.5	3.35	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.22)	3.36 ↓ (3.43)	2.84 ↓ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Go Ahead Eagles
38.4%

Draw
28.2%

Emmen
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

27%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

26.3%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Go Ahead Eagles has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Emmen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Go Ahead Eagles than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emmen than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	30.8%	7.7%

Go Ahead Eagles - Emmen Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Go Ahead will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Emmen will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Go Ahead: 35% – 88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 15).

Go Ahead has the most likely position - 18 (12.58%), has project points - 34, has currently - 3, has a chance of relegated (35%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Emmen has the most likely position - 17 (10.13%), has project points - 36, has currently - 4, has a chance of relegated (29%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 43, importance 43, match rating 43. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Go Ahead won 0.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Go Ahead could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Go Ahead won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Go Ahead won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Go Ahead Eagles
Dutch Eredivisie
09.09.22	Volendam - Go Ahead Eagles	2:3 ✺
03.09.22	Go Ahead Eagles - Feyenoord	3:4 ✺
27.08.22	Go Ahead Eagles - Sparta Rotterdam	0:1 ✺
21.08.22	Groningen - Go Ahead Eagles	1:0 ✺
13.08.22	Go Ahead Eagles - PSV Eindhoven	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLLLL
- FC Emmen
Dutch Eredivisie
10.09.22	Excelsior - Emmen	2:1 ✺
04.09.22	Emmen - AZ Alkmaar	0:3 ✺
27.08.22	Feyenoord - Emmen	4:0 ✺
20.08.22	Emmen - Utrecht	3:2 ✺
13.08.22	Emmen - Waalwijk	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
31.07.21	Go Ahead Eagles - Emmen	1:2
23.07.19	Go Ahead Eagles - Emmen	2:3
04.08.18	Go Ahead Eagles - Emmen	2:2
Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.02.18	Go Ahead Eagles - Emmen	0:1
22.09.17	Emmen - Go Ahead Eagles	0:0
04.03.16	Go Ahead Eagles - Emmen	0:0
16.10.15	Emmen - Go Ahead Eagles	4:1

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