Match Info

Date: 4 September 2022, Sunday

Location: De Oude Meerdijk (Emmen)

Referee: Perez M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Emmen		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	4	3.5	1.95	Watch
	3.8	3.6	1.93
	3.95	3.55	1.92	Watch
	3.75	3.5	1.94
	4.03	3.62	1.98
	3.8	3.4	1.95	Watch
	3.84	3.68	1.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.88 ↓ (4.46)	3.55 ↓ (3.93)	1.94 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emmen
24.4%

Draw
26.7%

AZ Alkmaar
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21%

23.8%

55.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.9%

24.8%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emmen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AZ Alkmaar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emmen than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.6%	22.7%	63.6%

Emmen - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Emmen will win (votes: 3 - 13.6%). AZ will win (votes: 14 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 22.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 43.5% – 83.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Emmen has the most likely position - 12 (8.46%), has project points - 39, has currently - 4, has a chance of relegated (21%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

AZ has the most likely position - 4 (20.92%), has project points - 60, has currently - 10, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a small chance of qualify for ucl (11%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has quality 53, small importance 27, match rating 40. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Emmen won 0.

Emmen is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

AZ is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Emmen could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match AZ is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Emmen won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 3-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Emmen won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Emmen
Dutch Eredivisie
27.08.22	Feyenoord - Emmen	4:0 ✺
20.08.22	Emmen - Utrecht	3:2 ✺
13.08.22	Emmen - Waalwijk	1:1 ✺
06.08.22	PSV Eindhoven - Emmen	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.22	Sparta Rotterdam - Emmen	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWTLL
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
01.09.22	AZ Alkmaar - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
28.08.22	Cambuur - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.08.22	Gil Vicente - AZ Alkmaar	1:2 ✺
18.08.22	AZ Alkmaar - Gil Vicente	4:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
14.08.22	Sparta Rotterdam - AZ Alkmaar	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
06.02.21	Emmen - AZ Alkmaar	0:1
22.11.20	AZ Alkmaar - Emmen	1:0
10.05.20	Emmen - AZ Alkmaar	Canceled
10.11.19	AZ Alkmaar - Emmen	3:0
02.02.19	AZ Alkmaar - Emmen	5:0
19.08.18	Emmen - AZ Alkmaar	1:4
Dutch KNVB Beker
26.10.16	AZ Alkmaar - Emmen	1:0

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