Match Info

HNL - Round 3

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Gradski stadion Velika Gorica (Velika Gorica)

Referee: Pavlesic P. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Croatia	Hajduk TV, MAX Sport 1, MAX Sport 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Gorica		Hajduk Split

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.8	1.65
	4.60	3.75	1.70
	4.8	3.75	1.62
	5.1	4.04	1.68
	4.52	3.89	1.71	Watch
	4.65	3.85	1.68
	4.67	3.94	1.71	Watch
	4.7	3.75	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.69 ↑ (4.01)	3.85 ↑ (3.53)	1.67 ↓ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gorica
19.9%

Draw
24.3%

Hajduk Split
55.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.1%

26.3%

50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.3%

25.4%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gorica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Hajduk Split has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hajduk Split's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gorica than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hajduk Split than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Gorica - Hajduk Split Predictions

Users Predictions: Hajduk Split will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Matijas D. (G) 45. Peric S. 32. Filipovic J. (C) 34. Cvijanovic I. 2. Braut F. 66. Frigan J. 36. Kavelj A. 25. Bogojevic B. 4. Custovic K. 24. Pavicic D. 9. Mijic P.	33. Silic T. (G) 22. Acapandie M. 15. Maresic D. 5. Van Hoorenbeeck A. 32. Hrgovic S. 8. Sigur N. 4. Pajaziti A. 16. Sutalo A. 21. Pukstas R. 23. Soticek M. 11. Sego M. (C)
Substitutes
7. Bakic O. 26. Carole K. 99. Gashi M. 1. Josipovic R. (G) 18. Kardum B. 28. Kozina E. 14. Kucis S. 8. Pranjic J. 67. Prgomet T. 20. Vrzic L. 30. Zarkov D. (G)	19. Brruti E. 9. de Almeida D. 20. del Moral A. 3. Gabric R. 26. Guram A. 38. Hodak L. 1. Ivusic I. (G) 10. Livaja M. 17. Melnjak D. 14. Raci R. 7. Sanyang A. 44. Stipica D. (G)
Coaches
Carevic M.	Garcia G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Sego M. ⚽, Pukstas R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Custovic K. ↓, Pranjic J. ↑,
46', Acapandie M. ↓, Hodak L. ↑,
51', Sego M. 🟨,
52', Cvijanovic I. 🟨,
67', Soticek M. ↓, Guram A. ↑,
68', Pajaziti A. ↓, del Moral A. ↑,
71', Sutalo A. 🟨,
74', Frigan J. ↓, Kucis S. ↑,
74', Mijic P. ↓, Vrzic L. ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Bogojevic B. (Penalty Awarded),
79', Sego M. ↓, Livaja M. ↑,
79', Sutalo A. ↓, Sanyang A. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Livaja M. ⚽, del Moral A. (A),
88', Braut F. ↓, Bakic O. ↑,
90', Van Hoorenbeeck A. 🟨,
90+3', Pavicic D. ↓, Kardum B. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gorica won 1.

Recent form of Gorica has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hajduk's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gorica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Hajduk is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Gorica: Erceg A. (Inactive) Sule W. (Inactive)

There will not play in Hajduk: Brajkovic R. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gorica won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 12:35. (average 0.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Gorica won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 0.7:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	9	6	1	2	18:9	9	19
10	Gorica	9	1	2	6	6:14	-8	5

Last Results with these Odds

Gorica - the odds 4.01 are the expected chance of winning is 23.15%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Hajduk Split - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.54%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HNK Gorica
Croatian HNL
08.08.26	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Gorica	3:1 ✺
01.08.26	Gorica - Osijek	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
23.07.26	Gorica - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:2 ✺
19.07.26	St. Pauli - Gorica	2:1 ✺
16.07.26	Gorica - Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLLW
- Hajduk Split
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Hajduk Split - Žalgiris	4:0 ✺
Croatian HNL
09.08.26	Hajduk Split - Istra 1961	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.26	Žalgiris - Hajduk Split	2:5 ✺
Croatian HNL
02.08.26	Varaždin - Hajduk Split	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.07.26	Paphos - Hajduk Split	4:0 AET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
12.04.26	Hajduk Split - Gorica	1:0
31.01.26	Gorica - Hajduk Split	1:0
24.10.25	Gorica - Hajduk Split	1:3
10.08.25	Hajduk Split - Gorica	2:0
11.05.25	Gorica - Hajduk Split	1:1
09.03.25	Hajduk Split - Gorica	2:1
07.12.24	Gorica - Hajduk Split	1:0

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