Match Info

HNL - Round 25

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Gradski stadion Velika Gorica (Velika Gorica)

Referee: Vukancic I. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Croatia	MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3


	Gorica		Slaven Belupo

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.5
	2.3	3.25	3
	2.32	3.1	3
	2.23	3.25	3.54
	2.32	3.16	3.16	Watch
	2.2	3	3.25
	2.22	3.13	3.53	Watch
	2.07	3.3	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.07)	3.16 ↓ (3.3)	3.28 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gorica
41.9%

Draw
29.6%

Slaven Belupo
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

27.7%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

27.3%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gorica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Slaven Belupo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gorica than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Slaven Belupo than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	30%	10%

Gorica - Slaven Belupo Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Gorica will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Slaven Belupo will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gorica: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gorica (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Matijas D. (G) 4. Filipovic J. 45. Peric S. 19. Cabraja M. 25. Bogojevic B. 8. Pozo I. 36. Kavelj A. 20. Vrzic L. 10. Prsir J. (C) 24. Pavicic D. 11. Sule W.	31. Hadzikic O. (G) 33. Isasegi K. 6. Bozic T. (C) 4. Kovacic D. 35. Zuta L. 7. Dabro M. 21. Crepulja L. 17. Mazar F. 11. Mitrovic J. 90. Nestorovski I. 27. Grgic A.
Substitutes
7. Bakic O. 32. Durakovic E. 64. Epailly T. 50. Erceg A. 99. Gashi M. 35. Josic Z. 14. Kucis S. 5. Les M. 1. Sahinovic M. (G) 30. Zarkov D. (G)	24. Bosnjak L. 9. Bozic I. 32. Covic I. (G) 15. Cubelic I. 3. Jakir A. 22. Jovic F. 5. Katalinic Z. 23. Lepinjica I. 12. Markovic A. (G) 2. Medjimorec V. 19. Qestaj E. 26. Sivalec G.
Coaches
Carevic M.	Gregurina M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Pavicic D. ⚽, Pozo I. (A),
15', Mazar F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
55', 1 - 1, Bozic T. ⚽, Crepulja L. (A),
59', Grgic A. ↓, Cubelic I. ↑,
64', Vrzic L. 🟨,
68', Vrzic L. ↓, Epailly T. ↑,
68', Sule W. ↓, Erceg A. ↑,
70', Isasegi K. 🟨,
74', 1 - 2, Mitrovic J. ⚽, Zuta L. (A),
76', 2 - 2, Pavicic D. ⚽, Bogojevic B. (A),
77', Pavicic D. 🟨,
84', Nestorovski I. ↓, Jakir A. ↑,
84', Mazar F. ↓, Bosnjak L. ↑,
84', Cubelic I. 🟨,
90+2', Hadzikic O. 🟨,
90+3', Dabro M. ↓, Lepinjica I. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gorica won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Slaven Belupo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Gorica has had a series of away games.

Gorica will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Gorica: Durakovic E. (Inactive) Fiolic I. (Inactive) Trontelj Z. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Slaven Belupo: Bozic I. (Injury) Kruselj F. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Slaven Belupo: Caimacov M. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gorica won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 18:33. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Gorica won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 0.9:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Slaven Belupo	8	2	1	5	7:16	-9	7
10	Gorica	9	1	2	6	6:14	-8	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HNK Gorica
Croatian Cup
04.03.26	Varaždin - Gorica	1:3 ✺
Croatian HNL
01.03.26	Dinamo Zagreb - Gorica	4:2 ✺
21.02.26	Istra 1961 - Gorica	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Gorica - Vukovar 91	0:0 ✺
06.02.26	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Gorica	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WLWTL
- NK Slaven Belupo
Croatian HNL
27.02.26	Slaven Belupo - Istra 1961	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Vukovar 91 - Slaven Belupo	2:2 ✺
13.02.26	Slaven Belupo - Lokomotiva Zagreb	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Hajduk Split - Slaven Belupo	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Slaven Belupo - Varaždin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
05.12.25	Slaven Belupo - Gorica	2:1
21.09.25	Gorica - Slaven Belupo	2:1
18.05.25	Slaven Belupo - Gorica	4:0
14.03.25	Gorica - Slaven Belupo	0:3
Croatian Cup
05.03.25	Slaven Belupo - Gorica	3:1 ET
Croatian HNL
13.12.24	Slaven Belupo - Gorica	2:1
30.09.24	Gorica - Slaven Belupo	2:1

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