Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday


	Grêmio		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.75	2.00
	2.96	3.57	2.13
	3.20	3.50	1.91
	2.81	3.26	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.81)	3.52 ↑ (3.26)	2.06 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
29.8%

Draw
25.9%

Cruzeiro
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

27.4%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

26.6%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gabriel Grando (G) 9. Amuzu F. 38. Caio Paulista 95. Carlos Vinicius 37. Gabriel Mec 6. Gustavo Martins 5. Nardoni J. 7. Pavon C. 21. Tete 20. Villasanti M. 4. Walter Kannemann (C)	81. Otavio Costa (G) 15. Fabricio Bruno 11. Gerson 34. Jonathan Jesus 19. Kaio Jorge 7. Marquinhos 8. Matheus Henrique 10. Matheus Pereira 27. Rojas G. 17. Sinisterra L. 12. William Furtado (C)
Substitutes
50. Bernardo Zortea 99. Enamorado J. 40. Jefinho 43. Luis Eduardo 14. Marcos Rocha 30. Matheus Nascimento 31. Menegon G. (G) 11. Monsalve M. 54. Pedro Gabriel 65. Riquelme 24. Thiago Beltrame (G) 3. Wagner Leonardo 82. Wallace 10. Willian	9. Bruno Rodrigues 91. Chico 84. Coutinho K. 23. Fagner 77. Gabriel Pec 43. Joao Marcelo 2. Kaua Moraes 70. Kenji 16. Lucas Silva 24. Marcelo Eraclito (G) 29. Romero L. 25. Villalba L. 94. Wanderson

Key Events of the Match

(1 - 3)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 0.

Grêmio has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cruzeiro is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:25. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.1:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 31.74%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Club Friendly
04.07.26	Grêmio - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
27.06.26	FC Cascavel - Grêmio	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.05.26	Grêmio - Corinthians	1:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
26.05.26	Grêmio - Montevideo City Torque	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.05.26	Grêmio - Santos	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLTW
- Cruzeiro MG
Club Friendly
04.07.26	Cruzeiro - Defensor Sporting	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
31.05.26	Cruzeiro - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.05.26	Cruzeiro - Barcelona Guayaquil	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.26	Cruzeiro - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.05.26	Boca Juniors - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	2:0
05.11.25	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	0:1
13.07.25	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	4:1
27.11.24	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	1:1
10.07.24	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	0:2
27.08.23	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	3:0
Copa do Brasil
31.05.23	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	0:1

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