Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 5

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
World	Onefootball


	Grêmio		Red Bull Bragantino

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.5	3.1	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3.5
	2.22	3.2	3.2
	2.31	3.39	3.35
	1.49	4.18	6.55	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.1
	2.26	3.4	3.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.97)	3.5 ↓ (3.67)	3.72 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
46.3%

Draw
27.7%

Red Bull Bragantino
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

25.4%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

24.8%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Red Bull Bragantino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95%	0%	5%

Grêmio - Red Bull Bragantino Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Grêmio will win (19 of 20 users predict this - 95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Grêmio will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (G) 7. Pavon C. 6. Gustavo Martins 44. Viery 23. Marlon (C) 19. Noriega E. 5. Nardoni J. 99. Enamorado J. 11. Monsalve M. 37. Gabriel Mec 95. Carlos Vinicius	1. Cleiton (G) 34. Hurtado A. 14. Pedro Henrique 16. Gustavo Marques 29. Juninho Capixaba 21. Lucas Barbosa 6. Gabriel 22. Gustavo Neves 30. Mosquera H. 32. Herrera J. 8. Eduardo Sasha (C)
Substitutes
77. Andre Henrique 38. Caio Paulista 17. Dodi 2. Fabian Balbuena 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 14. Marcos Rocha 33. Perez L. 65. Riquelme 47. Roger 24. Thiago Beltrame (G) 39. Tiago 4. Walter Kannemann	51. Caue Nascimento 27. Davi Gomes 3. Eduardo Santos 57. Marcelinho 35. Matheus Fernandes 9. Pitta I. 20. Rodriguinho 15. Sosa I. 52. Tavares R. 18. Tiago Volpi (G) 17. Vinicinho 28. Yuri Leles
Coaches
Castro L.	Vagner Mancini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Enamorado J. (A),
22', Mosquera H. 🟨,
38', Lucas Barbosa 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gabriel ↓, Matheus Fernandes ↑,
54', Enamorado J. 🟨,
60', Gabriel Mec ↓, Caio Paulista ↑,
60', Monsalve M. ↓, Dodi ↑,
63', Herrera J. ↓, Pitta I. ↑,
63', Gustavo Neves ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Rodriguinho ⚽, Juninho Capixaba (A),
67', Rodriguinho 🟨,
69', Enamorado J. ↓, Roger ↑,
70', Marlon 🟨,
79', Hurtado A. ↓, Eduardo Santos ↑,
82', Eduardo Sasha ↓, Sosa I. ↑,
90+2', Nardoni J. ↓, Perez L. ↑,
90+4', Juninho Capixaba 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 0.

Grêmio is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

RB Bragantino has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Grêmio might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Perez L. (Inactive) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in RB Bragantino: Alix Vinicius (Red Card) Fabinho (Red Card) Fabricio (Inactive) Rodriguez G. (Knee Injury) Rodriguinho (Injury) Sant'Anna A. (Inactive) Vanderlan (Inactive)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Arthur Melo (Injury)

There are questionable in RB Bragantino: Pitta I. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:14. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.8:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34:33	1	37
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

Red Bull Bragantino - the odds 3.43 are the expected chance of winning is 27.2%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.03.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Grêmio - Internacional RS	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
22.02.26	Juventude - Grêmio	1:2 penalties ✺
15.02.26	Grêmio - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TWWWT
- Red Bull Bragantino
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Corinthians - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Velo Clube - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.10.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio	1:0
10.05.25	Grêmio - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1
15.09.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio	2:2
01.06.24	Grêmio - Red Bull Bragantino	0:2
14.09.23	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio	2:0
07.05.23	Grêmio - Red Bull Bragantino	3:3
16.11.21	Grêmio - Red Bull Bragantino	3:0

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