Match Info

Serie B - Round 28

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Grêmio Novorizontino		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.50	6.25	Watch
	1.61	3.50	5.25
	1.67	3.55	5.20	Watch
	1.63	3.78	6.34
	1.67	3.5	5.52	Watch
	1.60	3.70	6.10
	1.62	3.55	5.73	Watch
	1.60	3.55	5.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.71)	3.58 ↑ (3.45)	5.77 ↑ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
57.7%

Draw
26.1%

Cuiabá
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

27.1%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9%

26%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Grêmio Novorizontino - Cuiabá Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Cuiabá (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cuiabá (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jordi (G) 2. Madson 26. Gabriel Bahia 4. Patrick 66. Maykon Jesus 6. Luis Oyama 18. Leo Naldi 41. Reidiney 10. Romulo 19. Diego Galo 11. Robson (C)	1. Joao Carlos (G) 13. Joao Basso 91. Luis Soares 4. Vitor Mendes 2. Igor Inocencio 30. Raul (C) 20. David Miguel 36. Lorenzo 41. Kauan Cristtyan 77. Jean Dias 90. Fabio Gomes
Substitutes
9. Carlao 3. Carlinhos 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 27. Diego Mathias 14. Eduardo Brock 50. Juninho 24. Lora J. 28. Marlon 17. Matheus Bianqui 7. Ronald Barcellos 5. Sander 15. Tavinho	12. Busatto G. (G) 11. Eliel 14. Eric Melo 50. Felipetto Colen Barcellos P. 22. Jacomin P. 26. Joao Vitor 97. Luiz Otavio 7. Ramon 27. Rodrigo Rodrigues 29. Vinicius Peixoto 70. Wesley Dias 53. Weverson
Coaches
Moreira E.	Barros E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Vitor Mendes ⚽, Igor Inocencio (A),
36', Raul 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Romulo (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Kauan Cristtyan ↓, Eliel ↑,
57', David Miguel ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,
60', Diego Galo ↓, Matheus Bianqui ↑,
60', Leo Naldi ↓, Juninho ↑,
69', Jean Dias ↓, Ramon ↑,
75', Luis Soares ↓, Wesley Dias ↑,
75', Fabio Gomes ↓, Vinicius Peixoto ↑,
79', Reidiney ↓, Ronald Barcellos ↑,
88', Luiz Otavio 🟨,
90', Robson ↓, Carlao ↑,
90', Romulo ↓, Tavinho ↑,
90+3', Joao Basso 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 10).

Novorizontino has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Cuiabá is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Novorizontino is the team to beat.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Nicolas Careca (Yellow Cards) Ortiz C. (Injury) Renato Palm (Injury) Sander (Inactive) Tavares Miguel (Injury)

There will not play in Cuiabá: Marcelo Carne (Injury) Pepe (Inactive)

We predict that Novorizontino will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 1.3:0).

Including home match between the teams, Novorizontino won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Novorizontino: 12.63% Cuiaba: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
10	Cuiaba	32	11	14	7	32:25	7	47

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio Novorizontino - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 54.62%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
09.09.26	Botafogo SP - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	3:1 ✺
28.08.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
24.08.26	Athletic Club - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:4 ✺
20.08.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWWWW
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
08.09.26	Cuiabá - Athletic Club	3:0 ✺
04.09.26	Criciúma - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Botafogo SP - Cuiabá	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Cuiabá - Goiás	1:1 ✺
19.08.26	Cuiabá - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
16.05.26	Cuiabá - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0
08.10.25	Cuiabá - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1
15.06.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Cuiabá	3:0

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