Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 10

Date: 17 February 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Referee: Batalha M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, UOL Play, Zapping
Usa	Fanatiz


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.25	3.3	Watch
	2.16	2.9	3.35	Watch
	2.23	3.1	3.64
	2.21	3.06	3.49	Watch
	2.15	3	3.3
	2.14	3.16	3.35	Watch
	2.16	2.9	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.39)	3.05 ↓ (3.12)	3.4 ↑ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
42.5%

Draw
30.3%

Mirassol
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

29.8%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

30%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	88.9%	0%

Grêmio Novorizontino - Mirassol Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 88.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 68.4% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Airton (G) 26. Dantas 3. Rafael Donato (C) 16. Reverson 7. Pablo Dyego 5. Jean Irmer 6. Luis Oyama 10. Matheus Frizzo 19. Leo Tocantins 20. Airton 11. Robson	23. Alex Muralha (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 34. Joao Victor 33. Alan Empereur 6. Reinaldo 8. Danielzinho (C) 25. Neto Moura 11. Negueba 27. Gabriel 29. Clayson 77. Iury Castilho
Substitutes
17. Bruno Jose 47. Fabio Matheus 14. Gabriel Correia 93. Jordi (G) 38. Leo Natel 28. Marlon 88. Patrick Brey 18. Pedro Balotelli 33. Renato 2. Rodrigo Soares 30. Waguininho 8. Willian Farias	10. Chico Kim 20. Daniel Borges 14. David Braz 13. Diego Goncalves 50. Gustavo Lacerda (G) 3. Jemmes 21. Jose Aldo 9. Leo Gamalho 7. Matheus Davo 5. Roni 90. Thomazella (G) 2. Wesley Santos
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Eduardo Barroca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Iury Castilho ⚽, Danielzinho (A),
31', Jean Irmer 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Jean Irmer ↓, Leo Natel ↑,
46', Reverson ↓, Patrick Brey ↑,
46', Airton ↓, Marlon ↑,
56', Pablo Dyego 🟨,
58', Iury Castilho ↓, Diego Goncalves ↑,
61', Leo Tocantins ↓, Waguininho ↑,
64', Clayson ↓, Chico Kim ↑,
70', Reinaldo 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Leo Natel ⚽, Matheus Frizzo (A),
76', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Bruno Jose ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Pablo Dyego ⚽, Luis Oyama (A),
83', Robson 🟨,
84', Gabriel ↓, Leo Gamalho ↑,
84', Neto Moura ↓, Roni ↑,
84', Lucas Ramon ↓, Daniel Borges ↑,
87', Luis Oyama 🟨,
90+5', Waguininho 🟨,
90+6', Diego Goncalves 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Novorizontino won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Novorizontino could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Novorizontino will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Novorizontino won 5 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13:7 (average 1:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Novorizontino won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:4 (average 1.1:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
13.02.25	Guarani - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	0:0 ✺
06.02.25	São Bernardo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
03.02.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
31.01.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TTTLW
- Mirassol
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
12.02.25	Mirassol - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
08.02.25	Mirassol - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
05.02.25	São Paulo - Mirassol	4:1 ✺
01.02.25	Velo Clube - Mirassol	0:1 ✺
29.01.25	Mirassol - Guarani	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
19.10.24	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0
02.07.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Mirassol	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
28.01.24	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
11.08.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Mirassol	2:1
03.05.23	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
30.01.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Mirassol	0:0
Brazilian Serie C
25.09.21	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1

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