Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 13

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Brinco de Ouro (Campinas)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Ukraine	Maincast Sport
Usa	Fanatiz


	São Paulo		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.7	3.8	Watch
	1.9	3.5	4.1
	1.85	3.55	3.95
	1.99	3.72	3.98
	1.88	3.81	3.87	Watch
	1.91	3.4	3.7
	1.9	3.73	4.03	Watch
	1.69	3.75	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.68)	3.65 ↑ (3.57)	4.05 ↓ (4.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
50.6%

Draw
26%

Mirassol
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

25.9%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.2%

25.3%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

São Paulo - Mirassol Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Mirassol will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 2. Toloi R. 35. Sabino 18. Wendell 16. Bobadilla D. 94. Danielzinho 37. Artur 10. Luciano 80. Cauly 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)	22. Walter (G) 34. Joao Victor (C) 2. Lucas Oliveira 3. Willian Machado 32. Igor Formiga 7. Shaylon 33. Eduardo 21. Jose Aldo 6. Reinaldo 77. Alesson 99. Andre Luis
Substitutes
17. Andre Silva 56. Bosshardt N. 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 34. dos Santos P. 30. Felipe Negrucci 33. Luan Silva 45. Lucca Marques 54. Luis Osorio 4. Matheus Doria 46. Pedro Ferreira 21. Soares C. 14. Tapia G.	23. Alex Muralha (G) 10. Chico Kim 20. Daniel Borges 8. Denilson 95. Edson Carioca 17. Everton Galdino 27. Galeano A. 9. Nathan Fogaca 25. Neto Moura 97. Rodrigues 29. Tiquinho Soares 12. Victor Luis
Coaches
Roger Machado	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Danielzinho 🟨,
45+4', Jose Aldo 🟨,
45+5', Nathan Fogaca 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', Jose Aldo ↓, Neto Moura ↑,
65', Shaylon ↓, Denilson ↑,
66', Cauly ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
76', Bobadilla D. ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
76', 1 - 0, Luciano ⚽, Wendell (A),
81', Eduardo ↓, Everton Galdino ↑,
81', Lucas Oliveira ↓, Tiquinho Soares ↑,
84', Alesson ↓, Edson Carioca ↑,
88', Luciano ↓, Matheus Doria ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mirassol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, São Paulo is the team to beat.

There will not play in São Paulo: Franco A. (Yellow Cards) Lucas Moura (Broken rib) Marcos Antonio (Injury) Pablo Maia (Inactive) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mirassol: Igor Carius (Hamstring Injury) Negueba (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Diaz E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Yuri Lara (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:17. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 2.6:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33

Last Results with these Odds

São Paulo - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 54.79%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	São Paulo - Juventude	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	São Paulo - OHiggins	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Vitória Salvador - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.04.26	Boston River - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLWLW
- Mirassol
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Internacional RS - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	LDU Quito - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Mirassol - Bahia	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.26	Mirassol - Lanús	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
11.01.26	Mirassol - São Paulo	3:0
Brazilian Serie A
19.10.25	Mirassol - São Paulo	3:0
24.05.25	São Paulo - Mirassol	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
05.02.25	São Paulo - Mirassol	4:1
23.01.24	Mirassol - São Paulo	1:1
13.03.22	Mirassol - São Paulo	0:3
16.05.21	São Paulo - Mirassol	4:0

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