Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 21

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes (Granada)

Referee: Bestard Servera L. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Granada		Castellón

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.25	2.5	Watch
	2.75	3.25	2.35
	2.88	3.25	2.35	Watch
	3.01	3.33	2.38	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.4
	3.03	3.31	2.44	Watch
	3	3.25	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.83)	3.25 ↓ (3.3)	2.4 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Granada
32.2%

Draw
28.8%

Castellón
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

28.6%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

29.2%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Granada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Castellón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Granada than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	7.1%	28.6%

Granada - Castellón Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Granada will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Castellón will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Granada: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Granada (votes: 2 - 50%). Castellón (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Granada (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Granada (votes: 3 - 60%). Castellón (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Astralaga A. (G) 28. Naasei O. 5. Lama M. 24. Williams L. 22. Diallo B. 8. Aleman P. 20. Ruiz S. (C) 11. Arnaiz J. M. 7. Sola A. 19. Pascual J. 26. Rodelas S.	13. Matthys R. (G) 22. Mellot J. 3. Brignani F. 5. Jimenez A. (C) 26. Tincho 21. Calatrava A. 15. Gerenabarrena B. 8. Barri 18. Santiago P. 7. Mabil A. 9. Camara O.
Substitutes
30. Akogo G. 10. Bouldini M. 23. Gagnidze L. 34. Garcia I. (G) 3. Hormigo D. 36. Juanjo 21. Saenz P. 14. Trigueros M.	1. Abedzadeh A. (G) 16. Cipenga B. 29. De Nipoti T. 6. Doue M. 14. Gil O. 19. Jakobsen A. 23. Mamah K. 20. Markanich N. 25. Ronaldo 17. Ruiz S. 4. Sienra A. 10. Suero I.
Coaches
Rojo Martin J.	Hernandez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Rodelas S. ↓, Saenz P. ↑,
65', Santiago P. ↓, Cipenga B. ↑,
65', Camara O. ↓, Jakobsen A. ↑,
68', Aleman P. ↓, Trigueros M. ↑,
76', Gerenabarrena B. ↓, Doue M. ↑,
76', Mabil A. ↓, De Nipoti T. ↑,
84', Pascual J. ↓, Bouldini M. ↑,
85', Sola A. ↓, Gagnidze L. ↑,
90', Tincho ↓, Ruiz S. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Granada has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Castellón is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Castellón may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Granada: Alcaraz R. (Yellow Cards) Hongla M. (Injury) Zidane L. (International duty)

There will not play in Castellón: Alcazar L. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Granada: Casadesus P. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Granada won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Granada won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Castellon	9	6	2	1	15:4	11	20
9	Granada CF	8	3	2	3	13:13	0	11

Last Results with these Odds

Granada - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 33.4%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Castellón - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.96%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Granada CF
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.01.26	Granada - Rayo Vallecano	1:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
03.01.26	Almería - Granada	3:2 ✺
21.12.25	Granada - Albacete Balompié	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Sporting de Gijón - Granada	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Granada - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLT
- CD Castellón
Spanish LaLiga2
03.01.26	Castellón - Huesca	4:1 ✺
21.12.25	Cádiz - Castellón	2:0 ✺
15.12.25	Castellón - Mirandés	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Castellón	1:3 ✺
30.11.25	Castellón - Las Palmas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
25.05.25	Granada - Castellón	2:1
22.10.24	Castellón - Granada	2:3

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