Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes (Granada)

Referee: Soto Grado C. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 2
Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Hungary	Sport 2
India	FanCode, FanCode
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	DAZN Italia
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid, Shahid
Spain	M+ LaLiga
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Granada		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.3	2.01	Watch
	3.6	3.3	2.05
	3.95	3.35	2.02
	1.82	3.76	4.04	Watch
	3.75	3.1	2	Watch
	3.99	3.35	2.08	Watch
	3.8	3.25	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.52 ↑ (2.43)	3.34 ↑ (3.12)	2.31 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Granada
28%

Draw
29.5%

Rayo Vallecano
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

28.7%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

28.6%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Granada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Granada's form might have worsened.

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rayo Vallecano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Granada than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Granada, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rayo Vallecano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.7%	21.7%	69.6%

Granada - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Granada will win (votes: 2 - 8.7%). Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 16 - 69.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 50.8% – 88.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Rayo Vallecano (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Granada (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Granada (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Astralaga A. (G) 28. Naasei O. 36. Juanjo 24. Williams L. 3. Hormigo D. 14. Trigueros M. (C) 4. Alcaraz R. 23. Gagnidze L. 21. Saenz P. 10. Bouldini M. 26. Rodelas S.	1. Cardenas D. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 33. Vertrouwd J. 22. Pacha 4. Diaz P. 15. Gumbau G. 21. Perez F. 8. Trejo O. 18. Garcia A. 14. Martin C.
Substitutes
30. Akogo G. 8. Aleman P. 11. Arnaiz J. M. 22. Diallo B. 17. Faye S. 34. Garcia I. (G) 32. Haro P. 5. Lama M. 19. Pascual J. 20. Ruiz S. 7. Sola A.	13. Batalla A. (G) 28. Becerra S. 10. Camello S. 3. Chavarria P. 19. de Frutos J. 26. de las Sias M. 32. Mendy N. 40. Molina A. (G) 11. Nteka R. 7. Palazon I. 23. Valentin O.
Coaches
Rojo Martin J.	Perez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Saenz P. ⚽,
31', Ratiu A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
49', 1 - 1, Garcia A. ⚽,
54', Gumbau G. 🟨,
59', Williams L. ↓, Lama M. ↑,
59', Bouldini M. ↓, Pascual J. ↑,
64', Martin C. ↓, de Frutos J. ↑,
64', Gumbau G. ↓, Valentin O. ↑,
64', Perez F. ↓, Palazon I. ↑,
66', Gagnidze L. ↓, Ruiz S. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Diaz P. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
79', Naasei O. ↓, Aleman P. ↑,
79', Rodelas S. ↓, Arnaiz J. M. ↑,
84', Garcia A. ↓, Chavarria P. ↑,
84', Trejo O. ↓, Camello S. ↑,
87', Pacha 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 3, Juanjo (Own goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Granada won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Rayo Vallecano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Rayo Vallecano is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Granada won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 11:26. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Granada won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:12. (average 0.9:1.7).

Outrights of Spanish Copa del Rey for now

Rayo Vallecano: 1.66% Granada CF: 0.62%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Granada CF
Spanish LaLiga2
03.01.26	Almería - Granada	3:2 ✺
21.12.25	Granada - Albacete Balompié	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Sporting de Gijón - Granada	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Granada - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.12.25	Tenerife - Granada	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LTLTW
- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
02.01.26	Rayo Vallecano - Getafe	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Elche - Rayo Vallecano	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Rayo Vallecano - Drita Gjilan	3:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
15.12.25	Rayo Vallecano - Betis	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Rayo Vallecano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
15.05.24	Rayo Vallecano - Granada	2:1
21.08.23	Granada - Rayo Vallecano	0:2
03.04.22	Granada - Rayo Vallecano	2:2
29.08.21	Rayo Vallecano - Granada	4:0
Spanish LaLiga2
07.05.18	Granada - Rayo Vallecano	0:2
02.12.17	Rayo Vallecano - Granada	1:0
Spanish LaLiga
19.03.16	Granada - Rayo Vallecano	2:2

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