Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 11 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok)

Referee: Malcevs E. (Lat)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Sports MENA 9, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
China	ZhiBo8
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 11
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport 2, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	Disney+
Thailand	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.4	2
	3.55	3.45	1.98
	3.73	3.6	2.02
	3.63	3.62	2	Watch
	3.6	3.5	2
	3.69	3.64	2.06
	3.66	3.4	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.65 ↑ (3.3)	3.52 ↑ (3.45)	2.01 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
25.9%

Draw
26.9%

Rayo Vallecano
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

26.9%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

27.1%

45.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	35%	50%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 3 - 15%). Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 10 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 28.1% – 71.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Jagiellonia (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 13. Vital B. 3. Stojinovic D. 27. Wdowik B. 11. Imaz J. (C) 31. Flach L. 8. Drachal D. 7. Pozo A. 10. Pululu A. 80. Pietuszewski O.	13. Batalla A. (G) 20. Balliu I. 24. Lejeune F. 5. Luiz Felipe 3. Chavarria P. 17. Lopez U. 6. Ciss P. 7. Palazon I. (C) 2. Ratiu A. 10. Camello S. 18. Garcia A.
Substitutes
19. Cantero A. 25. Jackson A. 4. Kobayashi Y. 85. Kozlowski E. 21. Lozano S. 86. Mazurek B. 22. Piekutowski M. (G) 5. Polak C. 18. Prip L. 9. Rallis D. 6. Romanczuk T. 17. Sylla Y.	28. Becerra S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 19. de Frutos J. 26. de las Sias M. 15. Gumbau G. 30. Molina A. (G) 22. Pacha 21. Perez F. 23. Valentin O. 33. Vertrouwd J.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Perez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Camello S. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
31', Drachal D. 🟨,
43', Chavarria P. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Imaz J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Drachal D. ↓, Mazurek B. ↑,
55', Camello S. 🟨,
60', Garcia A. ↓, de Frutos J. ↑,
60', Balliu I. ↓, Pacha ↑,
60', Camello S. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
61', 1 - 2, Pacha ⚽, Chavarria P. (A),
65', Palazon I. 🟨,
68', Pozo A. ↓, Lozano S. ↑,
68', Flach L. ↓, Romanczuk T. ↑,
80', Ciss P. 🟨,
80', Ciss P. ↓, Valentin O. ↑,
85', Pululu A. 🟨,
88', Lopez U. ↓, Gumbau G. ↑,
89', Wojtuszek N. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Rayo Vallecano has had a series of away games.

Rayo Vallecano is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Jagiellonia: Pietuszewski O. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Mendez D. (Injury) Mumin A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Alemao (Injury) Diaz P. (Knee Injury) Pacha (Personal Reasons) Trejo O. (Muscle Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.12.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ✺
Polish Cup
04.12.25	GKS Katowice - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - KuPS Kuopio	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.11.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLTWW
- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
07.12.25	Espanyol - Rayo Vallecano	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.12.25	Real Ávila - Rayo Vallecano	1:2 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.12.25	Rayo Vallecano - Valencia	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Slovan Bratislava - Rayo Vallecano	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
23.11.25	Real Oviedo - Rayo Vallecano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LWTLT

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