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Elche - Rayo Vallecano

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 17
  • Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Estadio Manuel Martรญnez Valero (Elche) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Elche Rayo Vallecano
    Elche Rayo Vallecano
    1 X 2
    #Advertisement. GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ 2.5 2.9 3.2 #Advertisement. Watch and Bet. GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Watch
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    Bet_in_Asia 2.41 3.15 3.41
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    Bovada 2.54 2.9 3.2
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.51 ↑
    (2.45)    		 2.97 ↓
    (3.29)    		 3.2 ↑
    (2.94)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

    • The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Elche
    38.1%    		Draw
    32.2%    		Rayo Vallecano
    29.8%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    38.8% 28.9% 32.3%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    38% 29.5% 33%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Elche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)
  • Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elche than the current prediction. (-0.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    57.5% 30% 12.5%

    Elche - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Elche will win (votes: 23 - 57.5%). Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 5 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 30%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Elche: 42.2% โ€“ 72.8%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Elche (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH 0 - Elche (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • AH +0.25 - Rayo Vallecano (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Elche (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    13. SpainPena I. (G)
    18. SpainDonald J.
    22. AustriaAffengruber D.
      6. SpainBigas P. (C)
    39. SpainFort H.
    15. SpainNunez A.
      8. SpainAguado M.
    14. SpainFebas A.
    11. SpainValera G.
    10. SpainMir R.
    20. SpainRodriguez A.
    		13. ArgentinaBatalla A. (G)
    20. AlbaniaBalliu I.
    24. FranceLejeune F.
    32. SenegalMendy N.
      3. SpainChavarria P.
    17. SpainLopez U.
    23. SpainValentin O. (C)
    22. UruguayPacha
      7. SpainPalazon I.
    10. SpainCamello S.
    18. SpainGarcia A.
    Substitutes
    32. MoroccoBoayar A.
      4. SpainDiaby B.
      1. ArgentinaDituro M. (G)
    45. SpainIturbe A. (G)
    17. SpainJosan
    30. SpainMendoza R.
    16. PortugalNeto M.
      3. SpainPedrosa A.
    21. FrancePetrot L.
      5. ArgentinaRedondo Solari F.
      7. SpainSantiago Y.
    		28. SpainBecerra S.
      1. SpainCardenas D. (G)
      4. SpainDiaz P.
    15. SpainGumbau G.
      5. ItalyLuiz Felipe
    40. SpainMolina A. (G)
    21. SpainPerez F.
      8. ArgentinaTrejo O.
    33. NetherlandsVertrouwd J.
    Coaches
         SpainSarabia E.
    		     SpainPerez I.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 0)
    • 6', 1 - 0, Fort H. ⚽, Rodriguez A. (A),
    • 12', Fort H. ↓, Neto M. ↑,
    • 22', Mendy N. 🟨,
    • 33', Balliu I. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
    • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
    • 57', Lopez U. 🟨,
    • 60', Valentin O. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
    • 67', 2 - 0, Rodriguez A. ⚽, Bigas P. (A),
    • 70', 3 - 0, Valera G. ⚽, Rodriguez A. (A),
    • 75', Mendy N. ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
    • 75', Pacha ↓, Vertrouwd J. ↑,
    • 75', Lopez U. ↓, Gumbau G. ↑,
    • 79', Febas A. 🟨,
    • 80', Rodriguez A. ↓, Santiago Y. ↑,
    • 80', Aguado M. ↓, Josan ↑,
    • 81', Bigas P. ↓, Petrot L. ↑,
    • 82', Lejeune F. 🟨,
    • 84', Josan 🟨,
    • 89', Mir R. ↓, Boayar A. ↑,
    • 90+1', 4 - 0, Neto M. ⚽, Josan (A),

    Preview

  • Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 13).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Elche won 2.
  • In recent matches, Elche has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
  • Rayo Vallecano is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins โ€“ 3).
  • Rayo Vallecano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • Recently, Elche has had a series of away games.
  • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
  • There will not play in Elche: Andre Silva (Injury) Diangana G. (Muscle Injury)
  • There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Ciss P. (International duty) Mendez D. (Injury) Mumin A. (Knee Injury) Nteka R. (International duty) Ratiu A. (Yellow Cards) de Frutos J. (Knee Injury)
  • There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Alemao (Injury)
  • In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Elche won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 1.7:1.3).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Elche won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:3. (average 2.2:0.5).

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Elche CF
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    16.12.25 Eibar - Elche 0:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    13.12.25 Mallorca - Elche 3:1 ✺
    07.12.25 Elche - Girona 3:0 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    03.12.25 Quintanar del Rey - Elche 1:2 ET ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    28.11.25 Getafe - Elche 1:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5
    WLWWL
    - Rayo Vallecano
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    18.12.25 Rayo Vallecano - Drita Gjilan 3:0 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    15.12.25 Rayo Vallecano - Betis 0:0 ✺
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    11.12.25 Jagiellonia Biaล‚ystok - Rayo Vallecano 1:2 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    07.12.25 Espanyol - Rayo Vallecano 1:0 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    04.12.25 Real รvila - Rayo Vallecano 1:2 ET ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7
    WTWLW
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    29.04.23 Elche - Rayo Vallecano 4:0
    03.10.22 Rayo Vallecano - Elche 2:1
    18.02.22 Elche - Rayo Vallecano 2:1
    17.10.21 Rayo Vallecano - Elche 2:1
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    16.01.21 Rayo Vallecano - Elche 2:0
    Spanish LaLiga2
    08.03.20 Rayo Vallecano - Elche 2:3
    05.10.19 Elche - Rayo Vallecano 1:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Elche CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.11.26 Elche - Valencia ✺
    - Rayo Vallecano
    Spanish LaLiga
    31.10.26 Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo ✺

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