Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 42

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes (Granada)

Referee: Moreno A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Maximo 3
Argentina	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Sky Sport
Peru	Disney+
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+
United-kingdom	LaLiga TV
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Granada		Sporting de Gijón

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.3	2.75	Watch
	2.38	3.25	2.82	Watch
	2.54	3.26	3.08
	2.58	2.87	3.15	Watch
	2.4	3	2.9
	2.5	3.19	3.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.26)	3.15 ↓ (3.33)	2.96 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Granada
38.3%

Draw
29.9%

Sporting de Gijón
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

28.2%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

28%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Granada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Sporting de Gijón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Granada than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting de Gijón than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	26.7%	53.3%

Granada - Sporting de Gijón Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Granada will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Sporting de Gijón will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting de Gijón: 31.2% – 83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Astralaga A. (G) 2. Casadesus P. 36. Juanjo 5. Lama M. 3. Hormigo D. 4. Alcaraz R. 41. Gonzalez I. 21. Saenz P. 14. Trigueros M. (C) 11. Arnaiz J. M. 19. Pascual J.	1. Yanez R. (G) 20. Vazquez K. (C) 4. Perrin L. 15. Vazquez P. 44. Cuenca A. 36. Rodriguez M. 24. Smith J. 10. Gelabert Pina C. 14. Corredera A. 17. Dubasin J. 19. Otero J.
Substitutes
43. Chukwuemeka O. M. 39. Dembele B. 22. Diallo B. 40. Diocou B. 27. Gambin M. 34. Garcia I. (G) 42. Jimenez P. 28. Naasei O. 9. Petit G. 26. Rodelas S. 32. Rodriguez D. 20. Ruiz S.	8. Bernal J. 7. Campos G. 18. Coundoul A. 23. Curbelo E. 3. Garcia P. 13. Joel C. (G) 12. Olivan B. 11. Queipo D. 30. Venteo I. (G)
Coaches
Rojo Martin J.	Jimenez B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Arnaiz J. M. ⚽, Pascual J. (A),
27', Vazquez K. 🟨,
34', Alcaraz R. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 1, Hormigo D. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gelabert Pina C. ↓, Campos G. ↑,
59', Saenz P. ↓, Diocou B. ↑,
60', Trigueros M. ↓, Ruiz S. ↑,
68', Smith J. 🟨,
73', Otero J. ↓, Garcia P. ↑,
73', Vazquez P. ↓, Bernal J. ↑,
73', Vazquez K. ↓, Olivan B. ↑,
73', Perrin L. ↓, Curbelo E. ↑,
81', Lama M. ↓, Diallo B. ↑,
81', Gonzalez I. ↓, Gambin M. ↑,
85', Arnaiz J. M. ↓, Rodelas S. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 2, Olivan B. ⚽, Dubasin J. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 14 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Granada won 3.

Granada has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sporting de Gijón has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Granada: Aleman P. (Thigh Injury) Diaby B. (Injury) Lemos A. (Injury) Williams L. (Injury) Zidane L. (Broken jawbone) Zinebi R. (Injury)

There will not play in Sporting de Gijón: Ferrari A. (Leg Injury) Loum M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nacho Martin (Achilles Tendon Injury) Rosas G. (Yellow Cards) Sanchez D. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Sporting de Gijón: Queipo D. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Granada won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Granada won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 15:5. (average 2.1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Gijon	8	4	1	3	8:8	0	13
9	Granada CF	8	3	2	3	13:13	0	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Granada CF
Spanish LaLiga2
24.05.26	Mirandés - Granada	3:1 ✺
16.05.26	Granada - Burgos	0:1 ✺
10.05.26	Córdoba - Granada	1:0 ✺
01.05.26	Zaragoza - Granada	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	Granada - Almería	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLWL
- Sporting de Gijón
Spanish LaLiga2
24.05.26	Sporting de Gijón - Almería	3:1 ✺
17.05.26	Zaragoza - Sporting de Gijón	1:3 ✺
09.05.26	Málaga - Sporting de Gijón	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Sporting de Gijón - Ceuta	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	Córdoba - Sporting de Gijón	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
13.12.25	Sporting de Gijón - Granada	1:0
26.01.25	Granada - Sporting de Gijón	3:1
16.11.24	Sporting de Gijón - Granada	1:2
02.04.23	Sporting de Gijón - Granada	1:0
13.10.22	Granada - Sporting de Gijón	5:0
12.04.19	Sporting de Gijón - Granada	1:0
23.11.18	Granada - Sporting de Gijón	1:2

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