Match Info

SCOTLAND: SCOTTISH CUP - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 20 January 2024, Saturday

Location: Cappielow Park (Greenock)


	Greenock Morton		Montrose

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.5	7.5
	1.37	4.33	6.75
	1.36	4.75	8
	1.64	3.9	4.79
	1.34	4.55	8.64
	1.3	4.75	8
	1.4	4.6	7.55
	1.39	4.5	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.57)	4.49 ↑ (3.88)	7.3 ↑ (4.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Greenock Morton
66.5%

Draw
20.8%

Montrose
12.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

23.3%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

22.5%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Greenock Morton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Greenock Morton's performance.

Montrose has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Montrose might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Greenock Morton than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Greenock Morton that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montrose than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Montrose could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Greenock Morton - Montrose Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mullen R. (G) 8. Blues C. 4. O'Connor D. 15. Broadfoot K. 6. Waters C. 10. Quitongo J. 21. Gillespie G. 14. Crawford R. 27. Wilson I. 9. Muirhead R. 22. Oakley G.	1. Gill C. (G) 4. Quinn A. 14. Dillon S. 18. Graham L. 2. Williamson R. 7. Webster G. 10. Gardyne M. 22. Brown C. 3. Steeves A. 9. Hester K. 17. Shrive A.
Substitutes
19. Bearne J. 18. Garrity M. 25. King A. 17. McGrattan L. 41. Murdoch S. (G) 31. O'Boy L. 20. Power A. 3. Strapp L.	16. Batchelor C. 19. Callaghan L. 20. Craig H. 12. Hermiston B. 11. Lyons B. 21. Matthews R. (G) 8. Watson P.

Preview

Greenock is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Montrose is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Greenock is indisputable favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Greenock won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Greenock won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Greenock Morton
Scottish Football Championship
13.01.24	Greenock Morton - Partick Thistle	1:1 ✺
06.01.24	Dundee United - Greenock Morton	2:3 ✺
02.01.24	Greenock Morton - Ayr United	3:0 ✺
30.12.23	Inverness - Greenock Morton	0:0 ✺
23.12.23	Airdrieonians - Greenock Morton	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 TWWTT
- Montrose FC
Scottish League One
13.01.24	Montrose - Stirling Albion	0:1 ✺
06.01.24	Annan Athletic - Montrose	2:2 ✺
30.12.23	Montrose - Cove Rangers	1:1 ✺
23.12.23	Alloa Athletic - Montrose	2:2 ✺
16.12.23	Kelty Hearts - Montrose	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Challenge Cup
09.10.21	Montrose - Greenock Morton	0:1 penalties
Scottish Football Championship
11.05.21	Greenock Morton - Montrose	3:1 ET
08.05.21	Montrose - Greenock Morton	2:1
Scottish League Cup
27.08.13	Greenock Morton - Montrose	4:0

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