Match Info

USA: USL League One

Date: 5 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Paladin Stadium (Greenville, SC)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Greenville Triumph		Lexington

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.66	3.7	4
	1.72	3.75	4
	1.72	3.77	4.18
	1.77	3.8	4.21	Watch
	1.69	3.74	4.21	Watch
	1.72	3.75	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.61)	3.75 ↓ (3.96)	4.1 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Greenville Triumph
53.3%

Draw
24.4%

Lexington
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

23.1%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

19.8%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Greenville Triumph has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Greenville Triumph than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Greenville Triumph - Lexington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rankenburg G. (G) 22. Shultz N. 5. Fricke B. (C) 4. Smith J. 3. Polak T. 7. Zakowski B. 12. Lee E. 8. Herrera C. 9. MacKinnon L. 25. Castro L. 10. Velasquez S.	13. Knight A. (G) 21. Young C. 44. Mendez M. 5. Fox K. 12. Corrales J. (C) 8. Yankam Y. 6. Caputo A. 32. Diouf A. 19. Canadi M. 77. Brown N. 17. Lancaster C.
Substitutes
20. Anderson H. 6. Anguiano C. 16. Corvino P. 19. Gabo H. 23. Garner C. (G) 15. Hald O. 29. Robles R.	18. Agboola M. 1. Causey A. (G) 11. Cerritos A. 20. Lacey K. 9. Liadi A. 2. Robertson T. 16. Uche C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', Herrera C. 🟨,
28', Caputo A. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Smith J. (Own goal),
44', Knight A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', 1 - 1, Fox K. (Own goal),
51', 2 - 1, Velasquez S. ⚽, Castro L. (A),
58', Brown N. 🟨,
61', Velasquez S. 🟨,
63', Brown N. ↓, Cerritos A. ↑,
63', Diouf A. ↓, Liadi A. ↑,
65', Corrales J. 🟨,
73', Caputo A. ↓, Lacey K. ↑,
73', MacKinnon L. ↓, Robles R. ↑,
74', Velasquez S. ↓, Corvino P. ↑,
80', Corrales J. ↓, Robertson T. ↑,
80', Shultz N. ↓, Gabo H. ↑,
80', Zakowski B. ↓, Anderson H. ↑,
88', Castro L. ↓, Hald O. ↑,
90+6', Anderson H. 🟨,
90+7', Rankenburg G. 🟨,
90+8', Robles R. 🟨,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Greenville Triumph
USL League One
21.09.24	Greenville Triumph - Central Valley Fuego	2:2 ✺
14.09.24	Chattanooga Red Wolves - Greenville Triumph	2:5 ✺
07.09.24	Union Omaha - Greenville Triumph	3:1 ✺
USL Cup
30.08.24	Greenville Triumph - Charlotte Independence	0:1 ✺
USL League One
25.08.24	Northern Colorado Hailstorm - Greenville Triumph	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TWLLL
- Lexington SC
USL League One
21.09.24	Richmond Kickers - Lexington	3:0 ✺
18.09.24	Lexington - Central Valley Fuego	7:1 ✺
13.09.24	Lexington - One Knoxville	0:1 ✺
07.09.24	Northern Colorado Hailstorm - Lexington	5:1 ✺
USL Cup
31.08.24	Lexington - Chattanooga Red Wolves	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Cup
29.06.24	Greenville Triumph - Lexington	0:1
USL League One
29.03.24	Lexington - Greenville Triumph	2:3
14.10.23	Greenville Triumph - Lexington	1:1
01.09.23	Lexington - Greenville Triumph	1:1
22.04.23	Lexington - Greenville Triumph	0:2

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