Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday

Location: Stade des Alpes (Grenoble)

Referee: Gaillouste P. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free


	Grenoble		Bastia

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.3	Watch
	2.98	3.1	2.38
	3.13	3.29	2.47
	2.23	2.20	6.04	Watch
	3.06	3.15	2.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↓ (2.96)	2.97 ↓ (3.16)	3.13 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grenoble
34.4%

Draw
33.6%

Bastia
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

29.7%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

30%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grenoble has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bastia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grenoble than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bastia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	6.2%	18.7%

Grenoble - Bastia Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Grenoble will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Bastia will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grenoble: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Grenoble (votes: 1 - 50%). Bastia (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Grenoble (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Grenoble (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Bastia (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Diop M. (G) 19. Zahui N. 29. Paquiez G. (C) 5. Vidal C. 4. Mambo S. 27. Xantippe M. 9. Kerouedan A. 25. Valls T. 11. Bangre M. 18. Mbock H. 23. Elphege N.	30. Placide J. (G) 24. Meynadier T. 6. Guidi D. 5. Ariss Z. 4. Roncaglia A. (C) 13. Ducrocq T. 66. Janneh J. 15. Bohnert F. 25. Aiki A. 10. Boutrah A. 14. Sebas J.
Substitutes
16. Allain B. (G) 8. Benet J. 17. Delos S. 7. Diaby Y. 30. Diba S. 2. Djitte M. 20. Maurin E. 33. Sarikaya E.	11. Ble M. 16. Contena S. (G) 34. Djedje D. 3. Guevara J. 8. Karamoko I. 9. Tomi F. 18. Zaouai A.
Coaches
Rizzetto F.	Tavenot B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Rizzetto F. 🟨,
31', Mbock H. 🟨,
41', Sebas J. 🟥,
43', Diop M. ↓, Allain B. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Aiki A. ↓, Guevara J. ↑,
55', Kerouedan A. 🟨,
58', Boutrah A. 🟨,
58', Paquiez G. 🟨,
62', Kerouedan A. ↓, Diaby Y. ↑,
62', Vidal C. ↓, Delos S. ↑,
72', Bangre M. ↓, Benet J. ↑,
78', Meynadier T. ↓, Tomi F. ↑,
85', Zahui N. ↓, Maurin E. ↑,
85', Elphege N. ↓, Djitte M. ↑,
90', Boutrah A. ↓, Zaouai A. ↑,
90', Ducrocq T. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grenoble won 2.

Grenoble has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bastia is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Bastia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Grenoble: Bangre M. (Inactive) Benet J. (Injury) Diba S. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bastia: Akueson G. (Injury) Bohnert F. (Injury) Etoga L. (Injury) Olmeta L. (International duty) Parravicini N. (Injury) Vincent C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Bastia: Bathily Y. (Injury) Ble M. (Injury) Roncaglia A. (Illness)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Grenoble won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Grenoble won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grenoble Foot 38
French Ligue 2
23.09.25	Le Mans - Grenoble	1:0 ✺
19.09.25	Grenoble - Annecy	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Grenoble - Dunkerque	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Saint-Étienne - Grenoble	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	Clermont - Grenoble	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LLWTL
- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
23.09.25	Bastia - Rodez	2:3 ✺
20.09.25	Montpellier - Bastia	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Boulogne - Bastia	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Amiens - Bastia	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Bastia - Guingamp	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
25.04.25	Bastia - Grenoble	2:3
03.01.25	Grenoble - Bastia	3:2
02.03.24	Bastia - Grenoble	1:0
02.09.23	Grenoble - Bastia	0:0
28.01.23	Grenoble - Bastia	0:1
13.08.22	Bastia - Grenoble	3:0
19.03.22	Grenoble - Bastia	1:1

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