Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 23

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer (Fürth)

Referee: Haslberger W. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Greuther Fürth		Arminia Bielefeld

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.8	1.83	Watch
	3.9	3.6	1.82	Watch
	4.3	3.92	1.85
	3.78	3.76	1.91	Watch
	3.9	3.6	1.8	Watch
	4.14	3.84	1.82	Watch
	3.6	3.6	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.96 ↑ (2.87)	3.73 ↑ (3.44)	1.86 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Greuther Fürth
23.8%

Draw
25.3%

Arminia Bielefeld
50.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

26.9%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

25.6%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Greuther Fürth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Greuther Fürth's form might have worsened.

Arminia Bielefeld has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arminia Bielefeld's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Greuther Fürth than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Greuther Fürth, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arminia Bielefeld, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19%	14.3%	66.7%

Greuther Fürth - Arminia Bielefeld Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Fürth will win (votes: 4 - 19%). Arminia will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arminia: 46.5% – 86.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arminia Bielefeld will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. Prufrock S. (G) 15. Elvedi J. 4. Ziereis P. 5. Munz R. 23. Dehm J. 28. Arifi D. 13. Will P. 16. Keller A. 10. Hrgota B. (C) 7. Srbeny D. 47. Ltaief S.	1. Kersken J. (G) 24. Lannert C. 5. Bauer M. 31. Knoche R. 29. Handwerker T. 6. Corboz M. (C) 21. Russo S. 38. Worl M. 14. Momuluh T. 28. Uldrikis R. 22. Rochelt J.
Substitutes
44. Avlayici M. 25. Bjarnason B. 26. Boevink P. (G) 11. Dardari A. 33. Dietz M. 9. Futkeu N. 38. Marita R. 2. Reich L. 45. Varela K.	27. Boakye B. 11. Grodowski J. 19. Grosser M. 10. Mehlem M. 18. Oppermann L. (G) 37. Sarenren Bazee N. 17. Sicker A. 7. Telalovic S. 44. Yasar E.
Coaches
Vogel H.	Kniat M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Hrgota B. ⚽, Elvedi J. (A),
19', 1 - 1, Knoche R. ⚽, Handwerker T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ltaief S. ↓, Futkeu N. ↑,
46', Arifi D. ↓, Dietz M. ↑,
53', 2 - 1, Srbeny D. ⚽, Futkeu N. (A),
60', Corboz M. ↓, Mehlem M. ↑,
60', Lannert C. ↓, Boakye B. ↑,
60', Rochelt J. ↓, Grodowski J. ↑,
64', Handwerker T. 🟨,
69', Grodowski J. 🟨,
70', Worl M. ↓, Yasar E. ↑,
72', Dehm J. ↓, Reich L. ↑,
72', Srbeny D. ↓, Marita R. ↑,
79', Momuluh T. ↓, Telalovic S. ↑,
88', Elvedi J. ↓, Bjarnason B. ↑,
90+5', Futkeu N. 🟨,
90+6', Marita R. 🟨,
90+8', Mehlem M. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fürth won 2.

Recent form of Fürth has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arminia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Arminia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Fürth: Abrangao D. (Muscle Injury) Banse S. (Knee Injury) Green J. (Ankle Injury) Itter G. (Muscle Injury) John M. (Muscle Injury) Klaus F. (Injury) Schlieck T. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Arminia: Felix J. (Injury) Hilterman J. (Shoulder Injury) Richter D. (Knee Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Fürth won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 26:27. (average 1.5:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Fürth won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.4:1.3).

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

Arminia Bielefeld: 0.89% Greuther Furth: 0.4%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Greuther Furth	6	1	3	2	9:11	-2	6
15	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	10:12	-2	5

Last Results with these Odds

Arminia Bielefeld - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 40.85%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Greuther Fürth
German 2 Bundesliga
14.02.26	Kaiserslautern - Greuther Fürth	1:0 ✺
06.02.26	Greuther Fürth - Magdeburg	4:5 ✺
31.01.26	Holstein Kiel - Greuther Fürth	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Greuther Fürth - Eintracht Braunschweig	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Dynamo Dresden - Greuther Fürth	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLWTL
- Arminia Bielefeld
German 2 Bundesliga
15.02.26	Magdeburg - Arminia Bielefeld	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Arminia Bielefeld - Eintracht Braunschweig	3:2 ✺
01.02.26	Dynamo Dresden - Arminia Bielefeld	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	Arminia Bielefeld - Holstein Kiel	2:2 ✺
16.01.26	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Arminia Bielefeld	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
19.09.25	Arminia Bielefeld - Greuther Fürth	1:3
05.05.23	Arminia Bielefeld - Greuther Fürth	1:1
28.10.22	Greuther Fürth - Arminia Bielefeld	1:0
German Bundesliga
16.01.22	Arminia Bielefeld - Greuther Fürth	2:2
21.08.21	Greuther Fürth - Arminia Bielefeld	1:1
German 2 Bundesliga
15.02.20	Greuther Fürth - Arminia Bielefeld	2:4
31.08.19	Arminia Bielefeld - Greuther Fürth	2:2

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