Match Info

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Chapecoense		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	2.2	Watch
	3.15	2.98	2.32	Watch
	3.45	3.18	2.34
	3.38	3.02	2.29	Watch
	3.25	3	2.2
	3.26	3.25	2.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↓ (3.69)	3.12 ↓ (3.39)	2.26 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
28.5%

Draw
30%

Botafogo RJ
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

27.3%

47.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

26.6%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Botafogo RJ might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Botafogo RJ could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Chapecoense - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Chapecoense will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Botafogo will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Chapecoense (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Anderson (G) 3. Eduardo Doma 33. Bruno Leonardo 4. Joao Paulo 26. Everton 99. Rafael Carvalheira 27. Camilo Reijers (C) 91. Bruno Pacheco 97. Enio 7. Marcinho 11. Bolasie Y.	22. Neto (G) 2. Vitinho 15. Bastos 20. Barboza A. (C) 21. Marcal 8. Danilo 6. Medina C. 7. Junior Santos 88. Edenilson 10. Montoro A. 19. Arthur Cabral
Substitutes
37. Clar W. 10. Giovanni Augusto 22. Higor Meritao 77. Italo 20. Jean Carlos 5. Joao Vitor 2. Marcos Vinicius 31. Mauricio Garcez 18. Neto Pessoa 1. Rafael Santos (G) 70. Rubens Ricoldi 25. Victor Caetano	13. Alex Telles 14. Barrera J. 37. Barria K. 30. Correa J. 75. Huguinho 34. Justino G. 42. Kadu Santos 24. Leo Linck (G) 28. Newton 23. Rodriguez S. 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 3. Ythallo
Coaches
Fabio Matias	Carvalho F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Marcinho ⚽,
45+5', 2 - 0, Bolasie Y. ⚽,
45+6', Arthur Cabral 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Junior Santos ↓, Barria K. ↑,
58', Edenilson ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
64', Marcinho 🟨,
64', Marcinho ↓, Italo ↑,
64', Enio ↓, Giovanni Augusto ↑,
66', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,
68', Marcal ↓, Alex Telles ↑,
68', Montoro A. ↓, Correa J. ↑,
71', Anderson 🟨,
72', Bruno Leonardo ↓, Victor Caetano ↑,
77', Vitinho ↓, Villalba Jaume L. M. ↑,
80', Bruno Pacheco ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
81', Bolasie Y. ↓, Mauricio Garcez ↑,
90+8', Rafael Carvalheira 🟨,
90+10', Italo 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-1.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Botafogo has had a series of home games.

Botafogo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 8:14. (average 0.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 0.8:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo RJ - the odds 1.93 are the expected chance of winning is 47.74%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Mirassol - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	Operário Ferroviario - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Chapecoense - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.04.26	Chapecoense - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Fluminense - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 TWLWL
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.26	Botafogo RJ - Racing	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Botafogo RJ - Remo	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Botafogo RJ - Independiente Petroleros	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	Botafogo RJ - Internacional RS	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Botafogo RJ - Chapecoense	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Chapecoense - Botafogo RJ	1:4
27.11.19	Chapecoense - Botafogo RJ	0:1
26.08.19	Botafogo RJ - Chapecoense	0:0
15.11.18	Chapecoense - Botafogo RJ	0:1
26.07.18	Botafogo RJ - Chapecoense	1:0
11.10.17	Botafogo RJ - Chapecoense	2:1

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