Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 15

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Usa	Fanatiz


	Mirassol		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	7	Watch
	1.52	4.33	6
	1.46	4.15	6.9	Watch
	1.49	4.47	7.43
	1.48	4.37	7.07	Watch
	1.44	4	6.5
	1.49	4.43	6.84	Watch
	1.61	3.75	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.58)	4.23 ↑ (3.6)	6.69 ↑ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
63.5%

Draw
22.4%

Chapecoense
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

25.4%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

24%

15.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mirassol's performance.

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Mirassol - Chapecoense Predictions

Users Predictions: Mirassol will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor (C) 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo 21. Jose Aldo 8. Denilson 96. Carlos Eduardo 7. Shaylon 77. Alesson 99. Andre Luis	98. Anderson (G) 25. Victor Caetano 3. Eduardo Doma 4. Joao Paulo 26. Everton 5. Joao Vitor 27. Camilo Reijers (C) 91. Bruno Pacheco 97. Enio 11. Bolasie Y. 7. Marcinho
Substitutes
23. Alex Muralha (G) 10. Chico Kim 20. Daniel Borges 33. Eduardo 17. Everton Galdino 27. Galeano A. 2. Lucas Oliveira 9. Nathan Fogaca 97. Rodrigues 29. Tiquinho Soares 12. Victor Luis 5. Yuri Lara	37. Clar W. 10. Giovanni Augusto 22. Higor Meritao 77. Italo 20. Jean Carlos 2. Marcos Vinicius 31. Mauricio Garcez 99. Rafael Carvalheira 1. Rafael Santos (G) 17. Vinicius Balieiro 35. Vinicius Eduardo
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Fabio Matias

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Andre Luis ↓, Everton Galdino ↑,
18', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,
32', Victor Caetano 🟨,
32', Everton 🟨,
39', Igor Formiga ↓, Daniel Borges ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
54', Marcinho ↓, Mauricio Garcez ↑,
66', Shaylon ↓, Galeano A. ↑,
66', Denilson ↓, Eduardo ↑,
66', Bolasie Y. 🟨,
70', Joao Vitor ↓, Rafael Carvalheira ↑,
71', Bolasie Y. ↓, Giovanni Augusto ↑,
71', 1 - 0, Eduardo ⚽, Willian Machado (A),
74', Jose Aldo 🟨,
79', Enio ↓, Italo ↑,
79', Victor Caetano ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
81', 1 - 1, Joao Victor (Own goal),
90+7', Joao Paulo 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Mirassol is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Chapecoense has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mirassol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mirassol is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Mirassol: Edson Carioca (Yellow Cards) Igor Carius (Hamstring Injury) Negueba (Knee Injury) Neto Moura (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Chapecoense: Bruno Leonardo (Yellow Cards) Bruno Matias (Knee Injury) Robert Conceicao (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Chapecoense: Rafael Thyere (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 1:0).

Including home matches between the teams, Mirassol won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33
20	Chapecoense-SC	28	3	9	16	29:57	-28	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Mirassol - LDU Quito	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Mirassol - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Mirassol - Always Ready	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	São Paulo - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWLT
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	Operário Ferroviario - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Chapecoense - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.04.26	Chapecoense - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Fluminense - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Botafogo RJ - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
24.11.24	Mirassol - Chapecoense	1:0
05.08.24	Chapecoense - Mirassol	0:1
29.07.23	Chapecoense - Mirassol	0:1
15.04.23	Mirassol - Chapecoense	1:0

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