Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 20

Date: 31 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga (Goiânia)

Referee: Bauermann G. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, RedeTV!, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Vila Nova		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	2.63	2.75	3.1	Watch
	2.55	2.65	3
	2.62	2.68	3.05
	2.71	2.81	3.2
	2.59	2.84	3.02	Watch
	2.62	2.62	3.2
	2.68	2.71	3.14	Watch
	2.25	2.92	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.33)	2.75 ↓ (3.05)	3.08 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Nova
36%

Draw
33.8%

Coritiba
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

The chances for Coritiba have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	23.1%	61.5%

Vila Nova - Coritiba Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Vila Nova will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Coritiba will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Coritiba: 40% – 93.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Coritiba (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Coritiba will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Coritiba (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Halls (G) 2. Elias 3. Tiago Pagnussat (C) 4. Walisson Maia 13. Willian Formiga 5. Joao Vieira 18. Arilson 27. Igor Henrique 10. Dodo 77. Guilherme Parede 7. Andre Luis	1. Pedro Morisco (G) 20. Alex Silva 3. Maicon 55. Jacy 73. Zeca 8. Filipe Machado 19. Gomez S. (C) 10. Josue 77. Iury Castilho 49. Dellatorre 11. Lucas Ronier
Substitutes
20. Bruno Mendes 9. Gabriel Poveda 21. Gustavo Mathiello 6. Higor 29. Junior Todinho 30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 22. Miticov 23. Nathan Melo 8. Ralf 17. Ruan Ribeiro 11. Vinicius Paiva 14. Weverton	25. Clayson 27. de Pena C. 37. Everaldo 87. Gabriel Leite (G) 5. Geovane 9. Gustavo Coutinho 16. Joao Almeida 7. Nicolas Careca 12. Pedro Rangel (G) 23. Tiago Coser 36. Vini Paulista 70. Wallisson
Coaches
Luizinho Lopes	Mozart

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
12', Andre Luis 🟨,
14', 0 - 1, Tiago Pagnussat (Own goal),
22', Jacy 🟨,
25', 1 - 1, Dodo (Pen),
27', Filipe Machado 🟨,
31', Filipe Machado 🟨,
36', Iury Castilho ↓, Tiago Coser ↑,
45+2', 1 - 2, Jacy ⚽, Alex Silva (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Willian Formiga ↓, Higor ↑,
46', Arilson ↓, Gabriel Poveda ↑,
61', Andre Luis ↓, Junior Todinho ↑,
63', Dellatorre ↓, Gustavo Coutinho ↑,
67', Zeca 🟨,
68', Junior Todinho 🟨,
71', Tiago Coser 🟨,
72', Guilherme Parede 🟨,
73', Joao Vieira ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
73', Guilherme Parede ↓, Gustavo Mathiello ↑,
75', Josue ↓, Vini Paulista ↑,
75', Lucas Ronier ↓, Wallisson ↑,
83', Gustavo Coutinho 🟨,
90+4', Elias 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:14. (average 0.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Vila Nova won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
27.07.25	Volta Redonda - Vila Nova	2:1 ✺
22.07.25	Vila Nova - CRB Maceio	2:0 ✺
19.07.25	Avaí - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
11.07.25	Vila Nova - Operário Ferroviario	0:0 ✺
06.07.25	Ferroviária - Vila Nova	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LWTTW
- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie B
27.07.25	Coritiba - Amazonas	1:1 ✺
22.07.25	Athletic Club - Coritiba	1:1 ✺
19.07.25	Coritiba - Paysandu	2:5 ✺
10.07.25	CRB Maceio - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
04.07.25	Coritiba - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
05.04.25	Coritiba - Vila Nova	1:0
19.10.24	Vila Nova - Coritiba	0:3
29.06.24	Coritiba - Vila Nova	1:1
17.09.21	Coritiba - Vila Nova	1:0
19.06.21	Vila Nova - Coritiba	0:1
19.10.19	Vila Nova - Coritiba	2:2
23.07.19	Coritiba - Vila Nova	2:0

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