Match Info

CHINA: SUPER LEAGUE - ROUND 32

Date: 23 December 2022, Friday

Location: Tianhe Stadium (Guangzhou)


	Guangzhou Evergrande		Beijing Guoan

	1	X	2
	4	3.8	1.85	Watch
	4	3.3	1.82
	4.5	3.4	1.8
	4.1	3.5	1.82
	4.35	3.44	1.9
	4.2	3.25	1.8
	4.2	3.54	1.82
	4.1	3.6	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.18 ↓ (4.28)	3.48 ↓ (3.84)	1.82 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guangzhou Evergrande
22.2%

Draw
26.7%

Beijing Guoan
51%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.5%

24%

54.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.3%

23.8%

55%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guangzhou Evergrande has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Beijing Guoan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guangzhou Evergrande than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Beijing Guoan than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	13.6%	68.2%

Guangzhou Evergrande - Beijing Guoan Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Guangzhou Evergrande will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). Beijing Guoan will win (votes: 15 - 68.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Beijing Guoan: 48.7% – 87.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Jia League and 6).

Guangzhou Evergrande has the most likely position - 1 (100%), has project points - 72, has currently - 72, has not chance of relegated, was already of qualify for acl, was already of win league.

Beijing Guoan has the most likely position - 2 (100%), has project points - 70, has currently - 70, has not chance of relegated, was already of qualify for acl, has not chance of win league.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Guangzhou Evergrande won 2.

Guangzhou Evergrande is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Beijing Guoan is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Beijing Guoan could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Beijing Guoan is a favorite.

Last 22 head-to-head matches Guangzhou Evergrande won 10 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 27-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Guangzhou Evergrande won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guangzhou Evergrande TH
Chinese FA Cup
18.12.22	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Guangzhou Evergrande	3:1 ✺
Chinese Super League
15.12.22	Guangzhou Evergrande - Shandong Taishan	2:4 ✺
10.12.22	Guangzhou Evergrande - Guangzhou City	0:0 ✺
05.12.22	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Guangzhou Evergrande	0:0 ✺
01.12.22	Chengdu Rongcheng - Guangzhou Evergrande	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLTTL
- Beijing Guoan
Chinese Super League
15.12.22	Beijing Guoan - Changchun Yatai	3:0 ✺
10.12.22	Hebei CFFC - Beijing Guoan	0:4 ✺
05.12.22	Beijing Guoan - Dalian Pro	1:3 ✺
30.11.22	Zhejiang Professional - Beijing Guoan	2:0 ✺
25.11.22	Shanghai Shenhua - Beijing Guoan	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
29.10.22	Beijing Guoan - Guangzhou Evergrande	4:1
26.12.21	Guangzhou Evergrande - Beijing Guoan	1:0
13.12.21	Beijing Guoan - Guangzhou Evergrande	1:0
02.11.20	Guangzhou Evergrande - Beijing Guoan	3:1
28.10.20	Beijing Guoan - Guangzhou Evergrande	0:0
11.08.19	Beijing Guoan - Guangzhou Evergrande	1:3
04.05.19	Guangzhou Evergrande - Beijing Guoan	0:1

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