Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 13

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Rogelio Livieres (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Guaraní Asuncion		Sportivo San Lorenzo

	1	X	2
	1.40	4.00	6.50	Watch
	1.44	3.90	6.00
	1.49	3.95	6.25	Watch
	1.53	4.17	6.57
	1.45	4.27	7.1	Watch
	1.50	4.05	6.25
	1.43	4.31	7.37	Watch
	1.44	3.90	5.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.58)	4.07 ↑ (3.7)	6.48 ↑ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guaraní Asuncion
63.1%

Draw
22.7%

Sportivo San Lorenzo
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

24.8%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

23.5%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guaraní Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Guaraní Asuncion's performance.

Sportivo San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo San Lorenzo Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Guaraní will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Guaraní (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Martinez M. (G) 4. Mendez A. 2. Segovia I. 15. Servin T. 33. Allende L. 36. Martinez L. (C) 34. Maldonado M. 21. Arrua C. 29. Llano J. 26. Fernandez D. 11. Garcia J.	12. Quinonez W. (G) 2. Esteche L. 19. Caceres L. 4. Doldan J. 20. Meza Montiel D. 28. Gerzel G. 32. Aragon F. 21. Gonzalez H. 18. Alvarez A. 23. Ferreira M. 7. Salcedo S. (C)
Substitutes
10. Anasco M. 17. Cespedes V. 38. Coronel P. 12. Dionisi G. (G) 40. Fernandez F. 25. Gomez G. 23. Jacquet M. 20. Quinonez R. 9. Recalde J. 14. Rodriguez Echeverria R. O. 39. Rolon C. 18. Romero T.	9. Barrios J. 16. Benitez A. 35. Colman C. 26. Duarte J. 25. Fernandez K. 31. Franco L. (G) 13. Fretes I. 5. Paredes T. 15. Pinatares B. 14. Salcedo J. 6. Villamayor H.
Coaches
Arce F.	Fornasari P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Meza Montiel D. 🟨,
5', Allende L. 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Martinez L. ⚽,
29', Gonzalez H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gonzalez H. ↓, Benitez A. ↑,
46', Meza Montiel D. ↓, Fretes I. ↑,
46', Ferreira M. 🟨,
50', Alvarez A. 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Aragon F. ⚽,
62', Garcia J. ↓, Fernandez F. ↑,
62', Arrua C. ↓, Coronel P. ↑,
62', Fernandez D. ↓, Gomez G. ↑,
62', Alvarez A. ↓, Fernandez K. ↑,
67', Caceres L. 🟨,
68', Salcedo S. ↓, Colman C. ↑,
74', Mendez A. ↓, Rodriguez Echeverria R. O. ↑,
79', Llano J. ↓, Recalde J. ↑,
79', Gerzel G. ↓, Salcedo J. ↑,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 5th and 12th).

Guaraní has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Sportivo San Lorenzo is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Sportivo San Lorenzo may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Sportivo San Lorenzo has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, Guaraní enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Guaraní in today's match, at odds of 1.47.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Guaraní has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:2 (averaging 1.3:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Guaraní against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:1 goals.

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Guarani	13	5	6	2	14:10	4	21
12	San Lorenzo	13	0	3	10	4:22	-18	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.09.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:1 ✺
07.09.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWTWT
- Sportivo San Lorenzo
Paraguayan Primera Division
28.09.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Deportivo Recoleta	0:0 ✺
Copa Paraguay
23.09.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - 4 de Mayo	2:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Olimpia Asuncion	0:2 ✺
11.09.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - 2 de Mayo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
30.07.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1
10.04.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Guaraní Asuncion	1:0
13.02.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo San Lorenzo	3:1

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