Match Info

Date: 16 July 2022, Saturday

Location: Estádio Brinco de Ouro (Campinas)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)


	Guarani		Bahia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.75	2.85	2.7
	3.05	2.88	2.38
	2.8	2.8	2.7
	2.96	2.94	2.82
	2.8	2.8	2.7
	2.85	3	2.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↓ (3.32)	2.88 ↑ (2.75)	2.66 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarani
32.5%

Draw
32.4%

Bahia
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

33.7%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

34.4%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Guarani that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.8%	63.2%	21.1%

Guarani - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Guarani will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Bahia will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 63.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.5% – 84.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Bahia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Bahia: Marco Antonio (Injury)

There are questionable in Guarani: Marcinho (Injury) Rodrigo Andrade (Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Rezende (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie B
09.07.22	Guarani - Cruzeiro	1:0 ✺
02.07.22	CRB Maceio - Guarani	1:1 ✺
28.06.22	Guarani - Ituano	0:2 ✺
24.06.22	Londrina - Guarani	3:1 ✺
19.06.22	Guarani - CS Alagoano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WTLLT
- EC Bahia
Copa do Brasil
12.07.22	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
08.07.22	Vila Nova - Bahia	1:1 ✺
03.07.22	Bahia - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
28.06.22	Brusque - Bahia	0:2 ✺
25.06.22	Bahia - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTTWL

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