Match Info

Catarinense 2 - Round 13

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday


	Guarani de Palhoça		Hercílio Luz

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.20	1.73
	5.30	3.45	1.52
	4.79	3.27	1.70
	4.44	3.32	1.77	Watch
	4.55	3.20	1.67
	4.65	3.28	1.72
	5.3	3.7	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.77 ↓ (5.3)	3.35 ↓ (3.7)	1.65 ↑ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarani de Palhoça
18.8%

Draw
26.8%

Hercílio Luz
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.6%

23.7%

59.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.2%

23.2%

61.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarani de Palhoça has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Hercílio Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hercílio Luz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarani de Palhoça than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hercílio Luz than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hercílio Luz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Guarani de Palhoça - Hercílio Luz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, ⚽,
45+2', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+1', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 6 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Catarinense).

In recent matches, Guarani de Palhoça has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Hercílio Luz is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Hercílio Luz is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Guarani de Palhoça won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:6.

Standings

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Hercilio Luz	18	13	3	2	35:10	25	42
6	Guarani de Palhoca	18	6	5	7	24:24	0	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarani de Palhoça
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
28.06.26	Caravaggio - Guarani de Palhoça	2:3 ✺
21.06.26	Guarani de Palhoça - Nação	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Metropolitano - Guarani de Palhoça	3:1 ✺
07.06.26	Guarani de Palhoça - Atlético Tubarão	2:2 ✺
03.06.26	Jaraguá do Sul - Guarani de Palhoça	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WTLTW
- Hercílio Luz FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
28.06.26	Hercílio Luz - Fluminense-SC	4:2 ✺
21.06.26	Hercílio Luz - Metropolitano	3:0 ✺
14.06.26	Jaraguá do Sul - Hercílio Luz	0:2 ✺
07.06.26	Hercílio Luz - Nação	2:1 ✺
31.05.26	Caravaggio - Hercílio Luz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
10.05.26	Hercílio Luz - Guarani de Palhoça	6:0

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