Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 30

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Pietro Barbetti (Gubbio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Max


	Gubbio		Carpi

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2	3.1	3.3
	1.95	3	3.95
	2	3.1	4.15
	1.98	2.98	4.08	Watch
	1.95	2.8	3.8
	1.92	3	4.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (1.99)	3 ↓ (3.44)	3.89 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gubbio
46.2%

Draw
30.4%

Carpi
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

26.8%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

25.5%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gubbio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Carpi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gubbio than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carpi than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Gubbio - Carpi Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Carpi (2.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carpi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Krapikas T. (G) 23. Bruscagin M. (C) 4. Baroncelli L. 5. Di Bitonto A. 27. Podda L. 6. Varone I. 21. Carraro F. 44. Hraiech S. 3. Tentardini A. 73. Ghirardello T. 77. Minta A.	1. Sorzi M. (G) 19. Rossini M. 6. Panelli T. 4. Zagnoni D. 2. Verza N. 5. Figoli M. 29. Rosetti M. 7. Cecotti T. 80. Pietra N. 77. Gaddini M. 10. Stanzani L.
Substitutes
45. Bacalini L. 1. Bagnolini N. (G) 40. Costa G. 10. Di Massimo A. 82. Djankpata H. 17. Fazzi N. 19. La Mantia A. 11. Mastropietro F. 29. Murru N. 8. Rosaia G. 15. Signorini A. 56. Tomasella M. (G)	8. Amayah P. 44. Benvenuto M. 30. Giani E. 27. Giva N. 17. Lombardi L. 18. Mahrani Y. 90. Perta A. A. (G) 3. Rigo M. 23. Sall A. 22. Scacchetti A. (G) 16. Tcheuna R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Varone I. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Cecotti T. ↓, Rigo M. ↑,
51', Rigo M. 🟨,
52', 2 - 0, Hraiech S. ⚽,
56', Gaddini M. ↓, Giani E. ↑,
56', Figoli M. ↓, Scacchetti A. ↑,
61', Carraro F. ↓, Rosaia G. ↑,
71', Minta A. ↓, Djankpata H. ↑,
71', Hraiech S. ↓, Di Massimo A. ↑,
71', Tentardini A. ↓, Murru N. ↑,
71', Panelli T. ↓, Lombardi L. ↑,
77', Di Bitonto A. 🟨,
78', Varone I. ↓, Fazzi N. ↑,
85', Verza N. ↓, Tcheuna R. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 1, Lombardi L. ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gubbio won 3.

Gubbio is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Carpi's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gubbio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gubbio is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Gubbio won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Gubbio won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.7:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Gubbio	9	2	1	6	10:18	-8	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Gubbio 1910
Italian Serie C Group B
01.03.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Gubbio	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Gubbio - Arezzo	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Pontedera - Gubbio	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Gubbio - Vis Pesaro	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Gubbio - Campobasso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WLTWW
- Carpi FC
Italian Serie C Group B
28.02.26	Ascoli - Carpi	3:0 ✺
22.02.26	Carpi - Bra	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Perugia - Carpi	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Carpi - Arezzo	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	Ravenna - Carpi	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
25.10.25	Carpi - Gubbio	0:3
29.03.25	Carpi - Gubbio	0:2
17.11.24	Gubbio - Carpi	1:0
03.04.21	Gubbio - Carpi	0:4
13.12.20	Carpi - Gubbio	2:2
13.10.19	Gubbio - Carpi	1:2

Gubbio - Carpi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide