Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 27

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Ettore Mannucci (Pontedera)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport MIX


	Pontedera		Gubbio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.05	3	2.32	Watch
	3.31	2.98	2.46
	3.21	2.81	2.39	Watch
	3	2.7	2.3
	3.18	2.77	2.35	Watch
	3.2	2.85	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↑ (2.69)	2.85 ↓ (3.05)	2.37 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontedera
29.1%

Draw
32.2%

Gubbio
38.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.8%

29.8%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

29.9%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontedera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Gubbio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontedera than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gubbio than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Pontedera - Gubbio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Saracco U. (G) 23. Cerretti C. 94. Piana L. 13. Sapola M. 18. Paolieri L. 14. Manfredonia M. 7. Emmanuello S. 10. Kabashi E. 17. Vitali P. 28. Raychev A. 45. Yeboah P.	1. Bagnolini N. (G) 17. Fazzi N. 23. Bruscagin M. 15. Signorini A. (C) 27. Podda L. 8. Rosaia G. 6. Varone I. 3. Tentardini A. 82. Djankpata H. 11. Mastropietro F. 73. Ghirardello T.
Substitutes
32. Beghetto L. 22. Biagini V. (G) 16. Buffon L. 80. Caponi A. 8. Faggi F. 33. Fancelli A. 21. Lugano T. 27. Mbambi J. 25. Nabian H. 20. Pietrelli R. 30. Strada N. (G) 26. Wagner G.	. Bacalini L. 4. Baroncelli L. 78. Conti V. 40. Costa G. 5. Di Bitonto A. 77. Minta A. 29. Murru N. 45. Tomasella M. (G) 34. Zallu F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Varone I. ⚽,
10', Sapola M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Manfredonia M. ↓, Faggi F. ↑,
46', Kabashi E. ↓, Buffon L. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Faggi F. ⚽,
53', Vitali P. 🟨,
54', Djankpata H. ↓, Baroncelli L. ↑,
54', Bruscagin M. ↓, Di Bitonto A. ↑,
62', Cerretti C. 🟨,
62', Tentardini A. ↓, Murru N. ↑,
62', Mastropietro F. ↓, Minta A. ↑,
72', Podda L. ↓, Zallu F. ↑,
73', Emmanuello S. ↓, Caponi A. ↑,
73', Yeboah P. ↓, Nabian H. ↑,
81', Caponi A. 🟨,
86', Varone I. 🟨,
87', Raychev A. ↓, Mbambi J. ↑,
90+1', Murru N. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pontedera won 3.

Pontedera is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Gubbio is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Pontedera won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Pontedera won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
19	Gubbio	10	2	1	7	10:20	-10	7

Last Results with these Odds

Pontedera - the odds 2.69 are the expected chance of winning is 33.81%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Gubbio - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 36.35%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Pontedera
Italian Serie C Group B
12.02.26	Forlì - Pontedera	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Pontedera - Ternana	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Campobasso - Pontedera	3:2 ✺
18.01.26	Pontedera - Pineto	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Arezzo - Pontedera	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTLTL
- AS Gubbio 1910
Italian Serie C Group B
12.02.26	Gubbio - Vis Pesaro	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Gubbio - Campobasso	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Bra - Gubbio	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Gubbio - Forlì	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Perugia - Gubbio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
05.10.25	Gubbio - Pontedera	1:1
01.03.25	Pontedera - Gubbio	2:1
20.10.24	Gubbio - Pontedera	0:1
14.04.24	Gubbio - Pontedera	0:0
09.12.23	Pontedera - Gubbio	2:1
Italian Serie C Group A
14.05.23	Gubbio - Pontedera	1:1
Italian Serie C Group B
23.04.23	Pontedera - Gubbio	1:1

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