Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 27

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno


	Perugia		Carpi

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.55
	1.77	3.23	4.84
	1.76	3.25	4.77	Watch
	1.75	2.9	4.6
	1.71	3.16	5	Watch
	1.77	3.14	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.84)	3.16 ↓ (3.45)	4.79 ↑ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
52.1%

Draw
28.9%

Carpi
19%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.7%

26.4%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

21.5%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Carpi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Perugia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carpi than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carpi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Perugia - Carpi Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Perugia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gemello L. (G) 31. Tozzuolo A. 5. Angella G. 28. Riccardi D. 13. Stramaccioni D. 32. Megelaitis L. 16. Bartolomei P. 10. Canotto L. 77. Manzari G. 11. Bacchin L. 9. Montevago D.	1. Sorzi M. (G) 4. Zagnoni D. (C) 6. Panelli T. 19. Rossini M. 2. Verza N. 5. Figoli M. 29. Rosetti M. 3. Rigo M. 11. Casarini F. 28. Puletto F. 23. Sall A.
Substitutes
98. Bolsius D. 26. Calapai L. 15. Dell'Orco C. 4. Joselito 21. Ladinetti R. 23. Lisi F. 12. Moro L. (G) 90. Nepi A. 55. Strappini S. (G) 17. Terrnava D. 20. Tumbarello G. 24. Verre V.	44. Benvenuto M. 7. Cecotti T. 77. Gaddini M. 30. Giani E. 17. Lombardi L. 18. Mahrani Y. 90. Perta A. A. (G) 80. Pietra N. 22. Scacchetti A. (G) 10. Stanzani L. 16. Tcheuna R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Riccardi D. ⚽,
28', Riccardi D. 🟨,
30', Panelli T. 🟨,
35', Megelaitis L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Verza N. ↓, Tcheuna R. ↑,
46', Megelaitis L. ↓, Ladinetti R. ↑,
46', Bacchin L. ↓, Joselito ↑,
58', Canotto L. ↓, Nepi A. ↑,
61', Rigo M. ↓, Stanzani L. ↑,
66', Stramaccioni D. ↓, Dell'Orco C. ↑,
67', Puletto F. ↓, Pietra N. ↑,
68', Figoli M. ↓, Giani E. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Casarini F. ⚽,
78', Bartolomei P. ↓, Verre V. ↑,
90+4', Sall A. 🟨,
90+5', Ladinetti R. 🟨,
90+7', Riccardi D. 🟨,
90+8', Giani E. ↓, Lombardi L. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 2.

Perugia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Carpi has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Carpi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Perugia is considered a favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Perugia won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 1.4:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Perugia	10	5	1	4	14:15	-1	16

Last Results with these Odds

Perugia - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 49.68%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
12.02.26	Pianese - Perugia	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Sambenedettese - Perugia	0:1 ✺
30.01.26	Perugia - Ravenna	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Ascoli - Perugia	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Perugia - Gubbio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWTLL
- Carpi FC
Italian Serie C Group B
12.02.26	Carpi - Arezzo	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	Ravenna - Carpi	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Carpi - Sambenedettese	0:0 ✺
24.01.26	Carpi - Ternana	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Campobasso - Carpi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
05.10.25	Carpi - Perugia	2:0
10.01.25	Perugia - Carpi	1:0
08.09.24	Carpi - Perugia	2:0
14.03.21	Perugia - Carpi	2:0
15.11.20	Carpi - Perugia	0:0
Italian Serie B
16.02.19	Carpi - Perugia	0:1
25.09.18	Perugia - Carpi	0:1

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