Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 31

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia)

Referee: Millot B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bastia		Saint-Étienne

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.5	1.75	Watch
	4.15	3.5	1.8
	4.7	3.65	1.83
	4.41	3.7	1.76	Watch
	4.33	3.3	1.8
	4.6	3.64	1.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.4 ↑ (3.44)	3.55 ↑ (3.34)	1.79 ↓ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bastia
21.3%

Draw
26.4%

Saint-Étienne
52.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

27.9%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

27.2%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bastia's form might have worsened.

Saint-Étienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Saint-Étienne's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bastia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Saint-Étienne, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	10%	90%

Bastia - Saint Étienne Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Saint-Étienne (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Saint-Étienne will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Olmeta L. (G) 4. Roncaglia A. (C) 28. Akueson G. 3. Guevara J. 24. Meynadier T. 13. Ducrocq T. 66. Janneh J. 15. Bohnert F. 18. Zaouai A. 33. Beliandjou R. 9. Tomi F.	30. Larsonneur G. (C) 39. Pedro K. 26. Le Cardinal J. 3. Nade M. 11. Old B. 20. Boakye A. 14. Kante A. 7. Cardona I. 29. Moueffek A. 22. Davitashvili Z. 9. Stassin L.
Substitutes
5. Ariss Z. 10. Boutrah A. 16. Contena S. (G) 17. Eickmayer J. 29. Merghem M. 14. Sebas J. 12. Zilliox N.	8. Appiah D. 6. Bernauer M. 17. Duffus J. 5. Jaber M. 15. Lamba C. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 28. Miladinovic I.
Coaches
Ray R.	Montanier P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Zaouai A. ⚽,
8', Roncaglia A. 🟨,
33', Boakye A. 🟨,
45+1', Guevara J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Cardona I. ↓, Duffus J. ↑,
59', Beliandjou R. ↓, Sebas J. ↑,
59', Roncaglia A. ↓, Ariss Z. ↑,
60', Moueffek A. ↓, Miladinovic I. ↑,
68', Janneh J. ↓, Eickmayer J. ↑,
68', Zaouai A. ↓, Boutrah A. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Eickmayer J. ⚽, Tomi F. (A),
74', Duffus J. 🟨,
89', Eickmayer J. 🟨,
90+6', Meynadier T. ↓, Zilliox N. ↑,
90+8', Zilliox N. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 1.

Recent form of Bastia has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Saint-Étienne is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bastia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Saint-Étienne could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Bastia: Ariss Z. (Injury) Bathily Y. (Injury) Djedje D. (Injury) Guidi D. (Red Card) Merghem M. (Injury) Meynadier T. (Injury) Parravicini N. (Hernia) Roncaglia A. (Injury) Vincent C. (Injury)

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Bernauer M. (Knee Injury) El Jamali N. (Knee Injury) Ferreira J. (Broken Hand) N'Guessan D. (Inactive) Paalberg M. (Inactive) Tardieu F. (Calf Injury) Traore L. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 10:29. (average 0.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:10. (average 0.4:1.4).

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

St Etienne: 56.34%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	St Etienne	7	5	1	1	19:8	11	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
11.04.26	Red Star - Bastia	4:3 ✺
03.04.26	Bastia - Amiens	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Rodez - Bastia	1:1 ✺
13.03.26	Bastia - Boulogne	0:1 ✺
06.03.26	Pau - Bastia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTTLT
- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 2
11.04.26	Saint-Étienne - Dunkerque	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Nancy - Saint-Étienne	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Saint-Étienne - Annecy	4:0 ✺
14.03.26	Grenoble - Saint-Étienne	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Saint-Étienne - Red Star	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
13.12.25	Saint-Étienne - Bastia	2:2
16.03.24	Bastia - Saint-Étienne	0:4
19.12.23	Saint-Étienne - Bastia	3:2
31.01.23	Bastia - Saint-Étienne	2:0
30.08.22	Saint-Étienne - Bastia	5:0
French Ligue 1
04.03.17	Bastia - Saint-Étienne	0:0
18.09.16	Saint-Étienne - Bastia	1:0

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