Match Info

SOUTH KOREA: Korean Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 July 2024, Wednesday

Location: Gwangju Football Stadium (Gwangju)


	Gwangju		Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.75	5	Watch
	1.5	3.8	5.25
	1.55	4	5.5
	1.58	4.09	6.05
	1.59	4.01	5.34	Watch
	1.5	3.9	5.5	Watch
	1.55	4.05	5.34	Watch
	1.56	3.95	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.46)	3.94 ↓ (4.37)	5.42 ↓ (6.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gwangju
59.6%

Draw
23.4%

Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.5%

21.2%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

14.4%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gwangju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (-16.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gwangju that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Gwangju - Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Gwangju will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Seongnam will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Lee Jun (G) 44. Asani J. 96. Bruno Oliveira 19. Ha Seung-Un 23. Kim Kyeong-Jae 8. Lee Eu-Ddeum (C) 24. Lee Kang-Hyeon 20. Lee Kun-Hee 55. Park Tae-Jun 4. Popovic A. 40. Shin Chang-Moo	1. Yu Sang-Hun (G) 22. Jung Seung-Yong 6. Jung Won-Jin 3. Kang Eui-Bin 66. Kim J. (C) 23. Kim K. 88. Kuk Kwan-woo 18. Lee Jeong-Hyeop 27. Lee Jun-Sang 7. Oh Jae-Hyeok 2. Park Kwang-Il
Substitutes
28. Ahn H. 2. Cho Sung-Gwon 16. Ji-Hun J. 9. Joao Magno 27. Kim Jin-Ho 77. Oh Hoo-Sung 31. Roh Hee-Dong (G)	4. Han Suk-Jong 31. Heo Ja-Woong (G) 14. Kim Hun-Min 99. Lee Jung-Min 47. Park Ji-Won 28. Yun Young-Sun
Coaches
Lee Jung-Hyo	Choi C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Shin Chang-Moo ⚽,
36', Popovic A. ↓, Cho Sung-Gwon ↑,
45+1', 2 - 0, Shin Chang-Moo ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Lee Jun-Sang ↓, Ruiz L. ↑,
46', Jung Seung-Yong ↓, Kim Hun-Min ↑,
46', Kuk Kwan-woo ↓, Park Ji-Won ↑,
51', 🟨,
89', 2 - 1, Lee Jung-Min ⚽,
90+2', 2 - 2, Ruiz L. ⚽,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
120+1', 3 - 2, Joao Magno ⚽,
120+2', Joao Magno 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gwangju won 2.

Recent matches Gwangju is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Seongnam has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Gwangju could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Gwangju is a favorite.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Gwangju won 5 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 20-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Gwangju won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gwangju FC
South Korean K-League 1
14.07.24	Gwangju - Incheon United	0:2 ✺
10.07.24	Ulsan HD - Gwangju	0:1 ✺
07.07.24	Gangwon - Gwangju	2:0 ✺
30.06.24	Gwangju - Jeju	2:1 ✺
25.06.24	Suwon - Gwangju	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWLWL
- Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma
South Korean K-League 2
14.07.24	Seoul E-Land - Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma	3:1 ✺
08.07.24	Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma - Gyeongnam	1:4 ✺
29.06.24	Busan I Park - Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma	2:2 ✺
25.06.24	Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma - Chungnam Asan	0:4 ✺
22.06.24	Suwon Bluewings - Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
27.11.21	Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma - Gwangju	1:0
24.08.21	Gwangju - Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma	2:0
01.08.21	Gwangju - Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma	0:0
10.04.21	Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma - Gwangju	2:0
20.09.20	Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma - Gwangju	0:2
09.05.20	Gwangju - Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma	0:2
South Korean K-League 2
13.10.18	Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma - Gwangju	2:2

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