Match Info

K League 1 - Round 24

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Gwangju Football Stadium (Gwangju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	K League TV


	Gwangju		Incheon United

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.2	1.9	Watch
	4.60	3.40	1.77
	4.4	3.3	1.75
	4.4	3.48	1.98
	4.24	3.36	1.89	Watch
	4.2	3.4	1.93
	4.23	3.38	1.87	Watch
	4.2	3.25	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.3 ↓ (4.59)	3.35 ↓ (3.45)	1.87 ↑ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gwangju
21.8%

Draw
28.1%

Incheon United
50.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.3%

26.9%

52.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.8%

26.3%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gwangju has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Incheon United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Incheon United than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Gwangju - Incheon United Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Incheon will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim Kyeong-min (G) 22. Kwon Sung-Yun 4. van Grunsven T. 6. Ahn Young-Kyu (C) 17. Joao Pedro 40. Shin Chang-Moo 10. Choi Kyoung-Rok 37. Ri Yong-jik 88. Moon Min-seo 11. Fridjonsson H. 18. Iredale J.	1. Kim Dong-Heon (G) 32. Lee Ju-Yong 2. Ibiza 4. Kim Gun-Hee 39. Kim Myung-soon 11. Gerso 15. Seo Jae-Min 5. Lee Myoung-Joo (C) 17. Kim Seong-Min 99. Ferrier M. 72. Lee Chung-Yong
Substitutes
50. Ba Loua A. 2. Jang Seok-Hwan 16. Joung Ji-hun 8. Ju Se-Jong 23. Kim Dong-Hwa (G) 70. Kim Woo-jin 3. Lee Min-Ki 39. Min Sang-Gi 14. Yu Je-Ho	13. Choi Seung-gu 30. Kim Young-whan 70. Leandro Ribeiro 10. Lee Dong-Ryul 3. Lee Sang-Gi 21. Lee Tae-Hui (G) 9. Mugosa S. 26. Myung-joo L. 20. Park Kyung-sub
Coaches
Lee J.	Yoon Jong-Hwan

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Joao Pedro 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', van Grunsven T. ↓, Min Sang-Gi ↑,
55', Kim Seong-Min 🟨,
58', Kim Myung-soon ↓, Choi Seung-gu ↑,
58', Kim Seong-Min ↓, Mugosa S. ↑,
65', Iredale J. ↓, Kim Woo-jin ↑,
65', Fridjonsson H. ↓, Joung Ji-hun ↑,
76', Ferrier M. ↓, Leandro Ribeiro ↑,
78', Kwon Sung-Yun 🟨,
80', Joao Pedro ↓, Lee Min-Ki ↑,
80', Moon Min-seo ↓, Ba Loua A. ↑,
84', Lee Chung-Yong ↓, Myung-joo L. ↑,
84', Gerso ↓, Lee Dong-Ryul ↑,
90+5', 0 - 1, Mugosa S. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 12 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gwangju won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Incheon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Incheon is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gwangju won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 30:26. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Gwangju won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.8:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Incheon	31	11	9	11	39:33	6	42
12	Gwangju FC ✔	31	2	12	17	25:66	-41	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gwangju FC
South Korean Cup
19.08.26	Ulsan Citizen - Gwangju	0:1 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
15.08.26	Gwangju - Pohang Steelers	1:2 ✺
08.08.26	Bucheon - Gwangju	0:0 ✺
02.08.26	Daejeon Citizen - Gwangju	2:0 ✺
South Korean Cup
29.07.26	Gwangju - Cheonan City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLTLW
- Incheon United
South Korean K-League 1
16.08.26	Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:1 ✺
02.08.26	Jeju - Incheon United	3:3 ✺
South Korean Cup
29.07.26	Gimpo - Incheon United	1:0 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
26.07.26	Incheon United - Bucheon	1:1 ✺
21.07.26	Ulsan HD - Incheon United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
16.05.26	Incheon United - Gwangju	4:0
07.03.26	Gwangju - Incheon United	3:2
27.10.24	Incheon United - Gwangju	1:0
14.07.24	Gwangju - Incheon United	0:2
25.05.24	Incheon United - Gwangju	1:1
03.04.24	Gwangju - Incheon United	2:3
28.10.23	Gwangju - Incheon United	0:2

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